愿意为新兴技术付费：氨工业氢气需求研究（英）

Policy Research Working Paper Willingness-to-Pay for Emerging Technologies A Study of Hydrogen Demand in the Ammonia IndustryPublic Disclosure Authorized Svetlana IkonnikovaJevgenijs Steinbuks Policy Research Working Paper11338 Abstract This study introduces a novel quantitative method to assessthe willingness to pay for emerging technologies, such ashydrogen, as substitutes for fossil fuels in industrial pro-duction. A three-step framework is developed to derive thewillingness-to-pay function based on industrial competitionand market entry theory, relying exclusively on pre-entrymarket information. First, a system of equations is specified competition model incorporating entry by producers adopt-ing new technology is constructed, allowing willingness topay to be expressed as a function of conventional inputcosts, operational efficiency, and demand conditions. Theframework is applied to hydrogen use in ammonia produc-tion, using consumption and trade data from 2000–24 for16 major fertilizer-producing countries across four regions. This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Infrastructure Vertical. It is part of a larger effort by theWorld Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions aroundthe world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authorsmay be contacted at jsteinbuks@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available athttp:// The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those Svetlana Ikonnikova† Keywords:ammonia,industrialwillingness-to-pay,cleanhydrogen,structuralesti-mation 1Introduction Global economies are undergoing a profound transformation as industries adapt to techno-logical change and intensifying climate constraints. Geopolitical tensions, resource supplyuncertainties, and mounting environmental pressures challenge continued reliance on fossilfuels and accelerate interest in alternative feedstocks and production technologies (Philib-ert, 2017; International Energy Agency, 2021; International Renewable Energy Agency, The present study aims to address a central methodological gap in this debate bydeveloping an explicitly market-based, industry-structure-driven approach to estimatingwillingness to pay (WTP) for emerging production technologies. It derives long-run WTPas a function of downstream demand conditions, the marginal costs of incumbent domesticand international competitors, and key competition parameters.The resulting WTP Building on theoretical foundations from industrial organization and internationaltrade, the paper integrates competition, technological substitution, and demand charac-teristics into a unified entry framework for new technologies (Markusen and Venables,1998; Melitz, 2008; Chavas et al., 2020; Peneder and Unterlass, 2024).The model syn-thesizes three strands of literature: (i) entry and strategic interaction in industries withasymmetric marginal costs (Fudenberg and Tirole, 1985; Hall and Khan, 2003; Ellison To illustrate the empirical relevance of the approach, the framework is applied tohydrogen adoption in the ammonia industry, a hard-to-abate sector with well-definedglobal trade linkages. Using production, consumption, and trade data for fifteen majoreconomies, the empirical analysis extends existing work on ammonia decarbonization by with its degree of market concentration, shapes WTP for clean hydrogen and thereby Based on estimated WTP functions, the paper conducts numerical simulations toassess how market conditions and policy interventions, such as carbon pricing, affecthydrogen uptake.Across all markets, widespread hydrogen off-take requires hydrogenprices to fall into the$2–$3/kg range, broadly consistent with recent policy benchmarksand techno-economic assessments. At higher prices, adoption remains limited and highlylocalized:for example, at$3/kg, hydrogen-based ammonia production could reach onthe order of 200,000 tons annually in Europe and roughly 50,000 tons in North America, The paper contributes to several strands of existing research. First, it complementsthe literature on technology adoption and innovation by emphasizing the role of product-market competition and demand conditions, which are often abstracted from applied en-ergy studies (Aghion et al., 2001; Gilbert, 2006; Akcigit and Kerr, 2018; Jo and Kim, 2024).Second, it contributes to the emerging economic literature on hydrogen adoption. Whileexisting studies predominantly assess hydrogen competitiveness using techno-economicmodels that es