全球金属市场周报：冲击带来短期风险，同时亦孕育机遇

Energy shockto push out metals demand recoveryMetals demand has been patchy inrecent months. China’s consumption growth has CommoditiesGlobal slowed, and the expansion in offtake has been subdued in the US and Europe. As metalprices dislocated from fundamentals, we argued that demand needed to accelerate in 2Qto sustain the rally. Yet, the Middle East-related energy shock could push out thisstrengthening–past such shocks have reduced demand growth by up to 1ppt aseconomic activity stalls. Copper specifically had a hard time sustaining prices. Hence, itis not surprising market participants have reduced their length in the red metal;aluminium has also been caught up in the correction, which is somewhat counterintuitivegiven the Middle East accounts for 9% of global supply. However, both copper andaluminium could ultimately benefit from the end to hostilities and higher grid spending.Uranium could gain from renewed focus on nuclear. Global Commodity ResearchBofA Europe (Madrid) Michael WidmerCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 0694michael.widmer@bofa.com Francisco BlanchCommodity & Deriv StrategistBofA Europe (Madrid)+34 91 514 3070francisco.blanch@bofa.com Danica AverionCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)danica_ana.averion@bofa.com Energy security and independence back in focusOf course, focus in the Middle East has shifted from a purely political assessment to the implicationsfor commodity assets in the region and logistics. Hydro guided that arestart of its 630Kt Qatalum smelter could take 6-12 months, while Qatar outlined thatrepairing the damaged parts at the Ras Laffan LNG facility, which accounts for around3.5% of global supply, could take 3-5 years. The ripple effect from the conflict will likelybe felt even after hostilities end. The biggest risk now? Supply chain disruptions havealready led to higher energy prices, but there is also concern over shortages, whichwould likely hardwire an economic slowdown in some countries. Hence, a renewed focuson energy security/independence is no surprise. European Commission President Ursulavon der Leyen outlined, for instance, that the world is still too reliant on fossil fuels.Reconfiguring the global energy system will require metals. Clifton WhiteCommodityStrategistBofASclifton.white@bofa.com Daryna KovalskaCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)daryna.kovalska@bofa.com Rachel WiserCommodity StrategistBofASrachel.wiser@bofa.com Equity ResearchJason Fairclough>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)jason.fairclough@bofa.com Investment in the grid is metals-intensiveChina has made remarkable progresson diversifying its grid, achieving its 14thFive Year Plan renewables targets well ahead of time. That said, grid spending declined in 2H25and there is a risk that the country will raise solar/ wind capacity by just 200GW thisyear, from 400GW in 2025, although spending on infrastructure may to some extentoffset that. Still, China is not done with building its grid and other countries will likelyneed to accelerate spending as well. Indeed, we estimate that power generation capacityin China, the US and Europe needs to increase by a minimum of 4%, 2% and 2%,respectively annually out to 2030, just to keep the lights on. Metals are the beneficiaries.As such, copper and aluminium demand should bounce back, and there may also be arenewed push on nuclear energy, which should be supportive for uranium. Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)matty.zhao@bofa.com Caio Ribeiro>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Brazil)caio.ribeiro@bofa.com See Team Page for List of Analysts Shocks create opportunitiesEnergy shock set to impact demand Metals demand growth has been patchy in recent months Base metals rallied into 2026, but fundamentals have been somewhat patchy.Exhibit 1picks up on this, highlighting that China’s copper consumption has been under pressure,heavily influenced by a hit to grid spending after a period of very strong investment, alsobecause the government moved from paying developers on fixed electricity pricestowards floating ones. Meanwhile, demand expanded by low single digits ex-China. Datacentre investment and grid spending supported demand in the US, while Europeanofftake rebounded from a very low base as sentiment in the region improved. Exhibit3:Demand has rebounded from a lowbase Europe copper demand Factoring in that weakness, we expected that average copper prices would come inbelow $13,000/t ($5.90/lb) in 1H26 (seeGlobal Metals Weekly: Governments call theshots in battery metals). Acknowledging that prices had run ahead of fundamentals(Exhibit 4), we also argued that global demand needed to strengthen to extend the rally. Exhibit5:Net length has declinedCopper net positioning of investment funds on LME Global manufacturing PMIs and copper prices We are now concerned that the war in the Middle East could push back that rebound inconsumption. These concerns are also a reason why investment funds have reduced their net length in copper (Exhibit 5).Exhi