全球金属市场周报：冲击带来短期风险，同时亦孕育机遇

24 March 2026 CommoditiesGlobal Metals demand has been patchy inrecent months. China’s consumption growth hasslowed, and the expansion in offtake has been subdued in the US and Europe. As metalprices dislocated from fundamentals, we argued that demand needed to accelerate in 2Qto sustain the rally. Yet, the Middle East-related energy shock could push out thisstrengthening–past such shocks have reduced demand growth by up to 1ppt aseconomic activity stalls. Copper specifically had a hard time sustaining prices. Hence, itis not surprising market participants have reduced their length in the red metal; Global Commodity ResearchBofA Europe (Madrid) Michael WidmerCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 0694michael.widmer@bofa.com Francisco BlanchCommodity & Deriv StrategistBofA Europe (Madrid)+34 91 514 3070francisco.blanch@bofa.com Danica AverionCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)danica_ana.averion@bofa.com Energy security and independence back in focus Of course, focus in the Middle East has shifted from a purely political assessment to theimplicationsfor commodity assets in the region and logistics. Hydro guided that arestart of its 630Kt Qatalum smelter could take 6-12 months, while Qatar outlined thatrepairing the damaged parts at the Ras Laffan LNG facility, which accounts for around3.5% of global supply, could take 3-5 years. The ripple effect from the conflict will likelybe felt even after hostilities end. The biggest risk now? Supply chain disruptions havealready led to higher energy prices, but there is also concern over shortages, which Clifton WhiteCommodityStrategistBofASclifton.white@bofa.com Daryna KovalskaCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)daryna.kovalska@bofa.com Rachel WiserCommodity StrategistBofASrachel.wiser@bofa.com Equity ResearchJason Fairclough>>Research AnalystMLI (UK) Investment in the grid is metals-intensive China has made remarkable progresson diversifying its grid, achieving its 14thFive Year Plan renewables targets well ahead of time. That said, grid spending declined in 2H25and there is a risk that the country will raise solar/ wind capacity by just 200GW thisyear, from 400GW in 2025, although spending on infrastructure may to some extentoffset that. Still, China is not done with building its grid and other countries will likelyneed to accelerate spending as well. Indeed, we estimate that power generation capacityin China, the US and Europe needs to increase by a minimum of 4%, 2% and 2%, Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)matty.zhao@bofa.com Caio Ribeiro>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Brazil)caio.ribeiro@bofa.com Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources toabsorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. Shocks create opportunities Energy shock set to impact demand Metals demand growth has been patchy in recent months Base metals rallied into 2026, but fundamentals have been somewhat patchy.Exhibit 1picks up on this, highlighting that China’s copper consumption has been under pressure,heavily influenced by a hit to grid spending after a period of very strong investment, alsobecause the government moved from paying developers on fixed electricity prices Factoring in that weakness, we expected that average copper prices would come in below $13,000/t ($5.90/lb) in 1H26 (seeGlobal Metals Weekly: Governments call theshots in battery metals). Acknowledging that prices had run ahead of fundamentals(Exhibit 4), we also argued that global demand needed to strengthen to extend the rally. We are now concerned that the war in the Middle East could push back that rebound in net length in copper (Exhibit 5).Exhibit 6picks up on the energy issues, showing all themajor oil disruptions in recent decades. Meanwhile,Exhibit 7highlights that copper prices have more often than not been underpressure during energy shocks; the outlier rally post 1978 was heavily influenced by Exhibit8:Copper demand usually slows during energy supply shocks Copperprices in different energy supply shocks, indexed to 100 Source:Bloomberg, BofA Global Research The headwinds to demand are also shown inExhibit 8, which highlights that metaldemand usually slows during energy price shocks. This is worth following because evenas copper prices have dislocated from some of cyclical fundamentals, traditionalrelationships have to some extent reasserted themselves since the war in the MiddleEast kicked off. Indeed, the correlation between copper and the S&P500 was 0.26 and As oil and gas prices have pushed higher, a key question