霍尔木兹海峡全解析

All about the Strait of Hormuz Juliana Lee The Strait of Hormuz stands as a pivotal determinant of Asia's economic trajectory,a consequence of the region's substantial and systemic reliance on Gulf energyresources, accounting for approximately one-third of its oil and one-quarter of itsnatural gas supply on average. This structural dependence elevates geopoliticaltensions in the Gulf beyond mere price volatility, introducing a critical dimension offundamental supply access risk. A prolonged disruption to this vital maritime chokepoint would introduce a significant risk of stagflation across the Asian economies,though this scenario currently remains outside our baseline projections. Notably,states characterized by low indigenous energy self-sufficiency, exemplified bySingapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, exhibit heightened vulnerability to suchsupplyshocks.Conversely,economies like China,Indonesia,and Malaysiademonstrate comparatively greater resilience. Although South Korea benefits froma higher overall energy self-sufficiency rate compared to Singapore and Taiwan,largely attributable to its nuclear power generation capacity, this advantage iscounterbalanced by its relatively high reliance on the Gulf region for its primaryenergy imports. Chief Economist+65-6423-5203 Kaushik DasChief Economist+91-22-7180 4909 Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203 6139 Junjie HuangEconomist+65-6423-6699 Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203 6166 Overview ………………………….….....…..1China…........................................................3Hong Kong…...............................................7India….........................................................9Indonesia…...............................................13Malaysia…................................................14Philippines….............................................16Singapore…..............................................18South Korea..............................................20Sri Lanka...................................................22Taiwan……...............................................24Thailand….................................................25Vietnam….................................................28DB Macro Forecasts.................................30Growth & Inflation Heatmap……............32EM Asia Macro Charts….........................33EM Asia Monetary Policy Monitor….......35 Overview While some Asian economies, like Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, exhibita relatively high pass-through of crude oil price shocks to CPI inflation, others likeChina, India, and Indonesia manage this through regulated prices. In contrast,Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan often utilize their higher taxwedges to dampen the impact, although some have now opted to cap prices also. Juliana Lee As noted earlier, central bank responses could vary significantly, depending on theextent of oil price rise. In a more severe scenario where surging oil prices sharplyweaken their currencies, central banks in Indonesia (BI), the Philippines (BSP), andVietnam (SBV) would be prompted to hike rates. A more benign scenario with elevated oil prices, not high enough to raise growthconcerns, could lead the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to tighten moreaggressively and Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), Bank of Korea (BoK), and ReserveBank of India (RBI) to bring forward their rate hikes. Conversely, the Bank of Thailand(BoT) is likely to remain on a prolonged pause, with Thailand's growth relativelymore vulnerable to oil price shocks and the baht's depreciation being less of aconcern. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) will continue to utilize structural monetary policytools to direct the economy. While we have refrained from adjusting our monetarypolicy outlook given the volatile geopolitical situation, governments across theregion have already begun to tap into their budget to limit the impact on local prices. Regardless of the immediate outcome, the current geopolitical environment willleave a lasting mark on Asia's approach to energy security, likely prompting greaterinventory buildup and diversification efforts in energy type and where they aresourced. Source : IEA (CC BY 4.0), Deutsche Bank Research Source : CEIC, Deutsche Bank Research Source : CEIC, Deutsche Bank Research China nOn the first day of the National People's Congress, Premier Li Qiangdelivered a report on the government's work plan. We believe that the policysignals from the government regarding its work for this year are broadly inline with expectations. nEnergy shortages and rising inflation as a result of the Iran Shock is notnecessarily bad for China – an economy struggling with excess supply andlow inflation and leading the world’s green energy transition. nCPI rose by 1.3% YoY in February, suggesting a continued recovery trend.PPI further rebounded to -0.9% YoY from -1.4%. We revised up PPI forecastto 0.8% from 0.2% and kept CPI forecast unchanged at 1.5%. Government Work Plan O