预算与经济展望：2026至2036

The Budget and EconomicOutlook: 2026 to 2036 Phillip L. SwagelDirector Before the Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic GrowthCommittee on FinanceUnited States Senate Chairman Johnson, Ranking Member Smith, and Members of the Subcommittee, thank you for inviting me to testify aboutthe Congressional Budget Office’s most recent analysis of the outlook for the budget and the economy. My statement sum-marizes CBO’s new baseline budget projections and economic forecast, which the agency released on February 11. CBO regularly publishes reports presenting its baseline projections of what the federal budget and the economy would looklike in the current year and over the next 10 years if laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged.The budget projections are based on CBO’s economic forecast, which reflects trade policy as of November 20, 2025, andeconomic developments and laws in place as of December 3, 2025. The budget projections also incorporate the effectsof laws in place as of January 14, 2026. (CBO’s projections do not include the effects of appropriation acts passed by theHouse and Senate after January 14, 2026.) The Budget Outlook Deficits In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion and growsto $3.1 trillion by 2036. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit is 5.8 percent of grossdomestic product (GDP) in 2026 and grows to 6.7 percent in 2036, which is greater than the3.8 percent deficits averaged over the past 50 years. Rising net interest costs drive much ofthat increase. The primary deficit, which excludes those net interest costs, totals 2.6 percentof GDP this year and stays below that level through 2036, when it totals 2.1 percent. Projectionsfor2026 Budget deficit:$1.9trillion Debt From 2026 to 2036, large and growing deficits cause debt to increase. Federal debt heldby the public rises from 101 percent of GDP this year to 120 percent in 2036, surpassing itsprevious high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946. Debt held bythe public:101%of GDP Outlays and Revenues In CBO’s projections, federal outlays in 2026 total $7.4 trillion, or 23.3 percent of GDP.Relative to the size of the economy, outlays remain near their 2026 level through 2028and then rise, reaching 24.4 percent of GDP in 2036; that trend is a result of greaterspending on Social Security and Medicare and growth in net interest costs that are partlyoffset by declining outlays for discretionary programs. Revenues total $5.6 trillion, or17.5 percent of GDP, in 2026. Over the 2026–2036 period, increasing individual incometax receipts and remittances from the Federal Reserve are partly offset by decliningcustoms duties measured in relation to the size of the economy. In 2036, revenues total17.8 percent of GDP, slightly above their 50-year average of 17.3 percent. Outlays:$7.4trillion Revenues:$5.6trillion Changes in CBO’s Budget ProjectionsThe deficit for 2026 is $0.1 trillion (or 8 percent) more in CBO’s current projections than it was in the agency’s January 2025 projections, and the cumulative deficit over the 2026–2035period is $1.4 trillion (or 6 percent) greater. The 2025 reconciliation act (Public Law 119-21)and administrative actions related to immigration increased CBO’s projections of deficitsby $4.7 trillion and $0.5 trillion, respectively, after changes in the economy and relateddebt-service costs are accounted for. By contrast, higher tariffs reduced deficits by $3.0 trillion(including the effects of related changes in the economy and net interest payments). The Budget Outlook in Six Figures Total Outlays andRevenues Measured as a percent-age of GDP, federaloutlays exceed their50-year average by awidening margin from2026 to 2036 in CBO’sprojections. Revenues risejust above their 50-yearaverage in 2026 andremain slightly above thathistorical averagethroughout the 10-yearperiod. Outlays, by CategoryIn CBO’s projections, greater spending on Social Security and Medicare causes mandatory outlays to increase in relation to GDP. Discretionary outlays fall inrelation to GDP because GDP growth outpaces the growth of discretionary funding.Net outlays for interest increase as longer-term interest rates rise and debt mounts. Outlook forOutlaysandRevenues Increases in spendingfor Social Securityand Medicare andrising net interestcosts push outlays to$11.4trillion, or24.4%of GDP, in 2036. Revenues, by CategoryRevenues over the 2026–2036 period reflect stable receipts from payroll taxes and corporate income taxes and variation in receipts from all other sources. As a share ofGDP, receipts from individual income taxes rise, whereas receipts from customsduties decline. Revenues in 2036total$8.3trillion, or17.8%of GDP, upfrom17.5%in 2026. Total Deficits, Net Outlaysfor Interest, and PrimaryDeficits In CBO’s projections, the totaldeficit—the amount by whichoutlays exceed revenues—growsfrom 5.8 percent of GDP in 2026to 6.7 percent in 2036. Theprimary de