关于预算和经济展望的证词：2026年至2036年

The Budget and EconomicOutlook: 2026 to 2036 Phillip L. SwagelDirector Before the Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth Chairman Johnson, Ranking Member Smith, and Members of the Subcommittee, thank you for inviting me to testify aboutthe Congressional Budget Office’s most recent analysis of the outlook for the budget and the economy. My statement sum- CBO regularly publishes reports presenting its baseline projections of what the federal budget and the economy would looklike in the current year and over the next 10 years if laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged.The budget projections are based on CBO’s economic forecast, which reflects trade policy as of November 20, 2025, andeconomic developments and laws in place as of December 3, 2025. The budget projections also incorporate the effects The Budget Outlook Deficits In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion and growsto $3.1 trillion by 2036. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit is 5.8 percent of grossdomestic product (GDP) in 2026 and grows to 6.7 percent in 2036, which is greater than the3.8 percent deficits averaged over the past 50 years. Rising net interest costs drive much of Projectionsfor2026 Budget deficit:$1.9trillion Debt From 2026 to 2036, large and growing deficits cause debt to increase. Federal debt heldby the public rises from 101 percent of GDP this year to 120 percent in 2036, surpassing its Debt held bythe public:101%of GDP Outlays and RevenuesIn CBO’s projections, federal outlays in 2026 total $7.4 trillion, or 23.3 percent of GDP. Relative to the size of the economy, outlays remain near their 2026 level through 2028and then rise, reaching 24.4 percent of GDP in 2036; that trend is a result of greaterspending on Social Security and Medicare and growth in net interest costs that are partlyoffset by declining outlays for discretionary programs. Revenues total $5.6 trillion, or17.5 percent of GDP, in 2026. Over the 2026–2036 period, increasing individual income Outlays:$7.4trillion Revenues:$5.6trillion Changes in CBO’s Budget ProjectionsThe deficit for 2026 is $0.1 trillion (or 8 percent) more in CBO’s current projections than it was in the agency’s January 2025 projections, and the cumulative deficit over the 2026–2035period is $1.4 trillion (or 6 percent) greater. The 2025 reconciliation act (Public Law 119-21)and administrative actions related to immigration increased CBO’s projections of deficits The Budget Outlook in Six Figures Total Outlays andRevenues Measured as a percent-age of GDP, federaloutlays exceed their50-year average by awidening margin from2026 to 2036 in CBO’sprojections. Revenues rise Outlays, by CategoryIn CBO’s projections, greater spending on Social Security and Medicare causes mandatory outlays to increase in relation to GDP. Discretionary outlays fall inrelation to GDP because GDP growth outpaces the growth of discretionary funding. Outlook forOutlaysand Increases in spendingfor Social Securityand Medicare andrising net interestcosts push outlays to$11.4trillion, or24.4%of GDP, in 2036. Revenues, by CategoryRevenues over the 2026–2036 period reflect stable receipts from payroll taxes and corporate income taxes and variation in receipts from all other sources. As a share of Revenues in 2036total$8.3trillion, or17.8%of GDP, upfrom17.5%in 2026. Total Deficits, Net Outlaysfor Interest, and Primary In CBO’s projections, the totaldeficit—the amount by whichoutlays exceed revenues—growsfrom 5.8 percent of GDP in 2026to 6.7 percent in 2036. Theprimary deficit declines over the Federal Debt Heldby the Public Debt held by the public riseseach year of the projectionperiod, from 101 percent ofGDP this year to 120 percent in2036—higher than at any pointin the nation’s history. Over the Trillions of dollars Changes in CBO’s BaselineProjections of the 10-Year Deficit Since January 2025Deficits from 2026 to 2035 areprojected to total $23.1 trillion,$1.4 trillion more than CBOprojected in January 2025. Mostof that increase is attributable to 2026–2035 deficit in CBO’s February 2026 baseline The Economic Outlook Output Growth and the Labor MarketIn CBO’s projections, the 2025 reconciliation act and the rebound in economic activity follow- ing last fall’s lapse in discretionary appropriations boost output growth in calendar year 2026,but that growth is partially offset by the effects of last year’s increases in tariffs and increasedimmigration enforcement. Growth of real GDP (that is, GDP adjusted to remove the effects ofchanges in prices) moderates in later years of the projection period, reflecting various offset- Outlook for2026–2036 Employment growth is projected to rebound from its 2025 dip with the pickup in overalleconomic activity. The unemployment rate reaches 4.6 percent in 2026 and then declines to The growth of realGDP acceleratesthis year and slowsthereafter. Inflation Inflatio