2025年银行业与资本市场首席执行官展望

KPMG. Make theDifference. Foreword The banking and capital markets sector has historicallyproved effective at pivoting and adjusting to change.Despite recent shocks such as tariffs, wars, inflation,rapid rate hikes, liquidity scares, and credit risks, CEOsfeel their organizations have the resources to thrive,increase digital capabilities and enter new markets. AI canhelp improve customer engagement and increaseunderstanding of customers, but banks must avoid de-personalizing their interactions and losing the human touch.AI also simultaneously raises the cyber threat and boostsbanks’ ability to detect and defend against bad actors. The KPMG 2025 Banking and Capital Markets CEOOutlook reflects these underlying geopolitical, economicand market conditions, and provides some interestingsuggestions as to how CEOs are tackling the manychallenges to find a winning competitive formula. Ourglobal organization of professionals across KPMGmember firms are always available to discuss thesetrends, and specific topics that interest you, to help guideyour organization on its path to sustainable success. Tolearn more about the topics or ideas raised in this report,I encourage you to contact your local KPMG member firm. Inorganic growth remains firmly on the agenda, not leastto acquire and/or partner with fintech expertise and accesscustomers who prefer a digital experience. At the sametime, bank CEOs are aware of preserving the trust premiumthey have built up over decades or even centuries. Technology, in particular AI, presents a hugeopportunity, but also a challenge in terms of whereto prioritize, how to achieve a measurable return oninvestment (ROI), and how to ensure responsibleand safe adoption to maintain trust. Banks need tomodernize legacy IT, cope with rising financial crimerisk, made more difficult by sophisticated scams usingAI, address new competitive threats from fintechs andnimble, cloud-native banks, and comply with complexand changing regulations. Geoff RushGlobal Head of Banking andCapital MarketsKPMG International Executivesummary In a volatile world, banking CEOs areremarkably upbeatabout the prospects for their companies and their industry,with positive expectations for business and earningsgrowth. Appetite for M&A remains high, although this hasshifted somewhat towards more strategic transactions.Those expressing interest in higher-impact M&A are likelyto seek market consolidation — especially in regions likeEurope where fragmentation is greater. The specter ofcybersecurity continues to hang over the sector, but banksare stepping up to this threat by investing in cyber defense,including AI. Balancing humans and machines is becoming one of thekey priorities, to get the most out of AI, and reassurepeople that technology is there to make their lives morefulfilling — not simply take their jobs. There is a rethink ofthe kinds of skills and personal characteristics needed toforge a competitive banking workforce. 25% of CEOs identified ‘strategicdifferentiation’ — gainingcompetitive advantagethrough innovation, customerexperience or new businessmodels as the primary driverof AI adoption. In a highly regulated sector, sustainability reportingremains a major challenge for banking, and complianceis high on CEOs’ agendas. However, they alsoacknowledge the business benefits of clean energy,smart buildings and low-emission value chains, and areembedding sustainability into their business strategyand operations. Again, CEOs see the value of AI toforecast climate scenarios, decarbonize supply chains,and drive energy-efficiency. AI has become central to banking strategy,transforming the operations and employee andcustomer experience. Banks are acceleratinginvestment in AI, and rolling out AI at scale to reapbenefits in productivity and enhanced customerexperience. The CEOs are increasingly confident ofreturns from their investment but also recognize theneed to build trust, with ethical challenges seen as thebiggest obstacle to AI implementation. Over its history, the banking sector has shownremarkable resilience in adapting to periods of changeand uncertainty. Our 2025 CEO Outlook suggestscontinued optimism combined with realism, as banksdigitally transform and deploy new technologies that willhelp deliver growth and resiliency. Banking leaders recognize the seismic impact of AI ontheir workforces, with an urgent need for upskilling andredeployment, as AI radically transforms the shape of jobs. Keyfindings Achieving strategic advantagethrough ESG Tuning your workforceinto an AI world 78% say AI workforce readiness orAI upskilling could negativelyimpact the organization. say sustainabilityis embedded intothe business. 83%Economic outlook andbusiness confidence AI-powered technological innovation of CEOs areconfidentin company growth, upfrom 78% last year. 79% say AI has redefinedentry-level skills (up from53% in 2024) and 80% sayit is reshaping workforcedevelopment (up from 61%). expect agent