中国数据中心行业重估：万国数据与世纪互联

EquitiesIT Services Re-rating:just thebeginning China ◆GDS/VNET performance diverged post-earnings;we see strongtoken consumption in AI agent eraasare-rating catalyst Helen Fang*Head of Industrials Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited ◆GDS growth to acceleratein2027from moreGPUorders(1Q MOU500MW); VNET4Q order 137MW; inferencegrowing +852 2996 6942 Kenneth Chin*, CFAAssociate, Asia IndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited ◆GDS/VNET trading at 15x/7x EV/EBITDA, undemanding vs.2021 peak 40x/24x; C-REIT atc25x;retain Buys onGDS/VNET +852 2822 4521 Bart Liu*AssociateGuangzhou Divergence post-earnings:GDS and VNET both reported strong order inflow in 4Q25 of95/137MW, but VNET’s share pricedeclinedc10% post-earnings, while GDS was upc3%. We believe the divergencecamefrom orderexpectations. GDS 2026 YTD signed200MW of new orders, while an additional 500MW(mostly GPU)were under MOU, whichcould be finalised in the next few quarters.This was a positive surprisetothe market.VNET, on the other hand,did not announce new orderssigned YTD; themarketexpectedan order of c500MW fromamajor client. We believe the tender process is still ongoing,andany outsized future order announcement could be re-rating catalyst. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations GDS driven by CPU shift to GPU; VNET from growing inference:GDS previouslyfocused on tier-1 markets, which served more CPU demand due to their low-latency.However, with their newly securedland and3,000MW of power quota in Inner Mongolia,Ningxia and Shaoguan, we believe they will benefit from more GPU demand in AI trainingand inference going forward. We expect these capacities gradually come onlinebeginningin2027, driving GDS’s 2027 adj. EBITDA to 19%, from 7% in 2026e.VNEThasbeen inInner Mongolia since 2024, capturingmore AI training demand at the beginningof AIboom in China. With AI inference growingfast, driven by OpenClaw, we expect VNET’sgrowth toremain strong, and forecast its adj. EBITDA to grow21%/24%in 2026/2027. Capex funding and valuation comparison:GDSguidesfor2026capexto beRMB9bn(back to 2022 levels), up 91% y-o-y;VNET guided RMB10-12bn(historical high), upc34% y-o-y. We expectcapexto befinancedthroughproject loans (c55%), OCF (c25%),and REIT sales (c20%).Previous deleverageinitiativeshave placedboth companiesin abetter financial position to expand, with GDS’s pro-forma netdebt/ adj. EBITDA at 4.8x,and VNET’s at 4.3xas ofMar 2026 and 4Q25, respectively. GDSand VNET now tradeat15x and 7x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA, much lower than their 2021 peak of 40x and24x, respectively.(For context:GDS’s previously issued C-REIT(508060 CH, RMB4.52,not rated)now tradesat 25x; Equinix and Digital Realty are trading both at 22x). HSBC Global Investment Summit Retain Buy ratings forGDS and VNET:After factoring in latest forecasts,TPsforGDS/VNETincreaseto USD70.50/14.50 from USD62.70/14.40(based on a targetEV/adj. EBITDA multiple of 21x for DayOne(GDS holds 27%; DayOne has 1.25GWorder in hand), 13x for GDSChina in SOTP valuation, and 10.4x for VNET. 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at: Financials & valuation:GDS Holdings Financials & valuation:VNET Group GDSHoldings(GDS US, Buy, TP USD70.50) Valuationand risks GDS valuation Wecontinue to value GDSHoldingsusingasum-of-the-parts (SOTP)approach. ◆For DayOne, we use a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 21x, on par with Equinix’sforwardtrading EV/EBITDA multipleover the past 12 months(unchanged). We believe DayOne’sstrong growth potential justifies the premium multiple. Applying our target multiple toDayOne’s 2027e adj. EBITDA, subtracting net debt and FXconversion,and consideringGDS’27.3%ownership in DayOne, we arrive at a fair value ofUSD5,807m(previouslyUSD5,499m)for GDS shareholders.OurDayOne per GDSHoldingsADS fair valueisUSD28.25(previouslyUSD23.92). ◆For GDSmainland China business, we use13xforward EV/EBITDAasthetarget multiple(unchanged),to reflectmarket discount on the Listco combining mature China DCs,ramping up China DCs,and minority interest in DayOne.Wenote that C-REIT is currentlytrading above 25xEV/EBITDA.Weapplyourtarget multiple tothe HSBCe 2026/2027 adj.EBITDA average and renderanequity value per ADS ofUSD42.29.We choose theaverage of 2026 and 2027 to better reflect current and medium-term growthpotential, giventhatmore capacities will come online in 2027. Adding the DayOne andGDS mainland China businessvaluations, we derive a roundedTPofUSD70.50(previously USD62.70). Withc58%impliedupside, we maintainourBuyrating. GDS Hong Kong-listed share (9698 HK) valuation Wederiv