2025年全球风险报告 第20版

I N S I G H TR E P O R T Acknowledgement The Global Risks Report is produced exclusively bythe World Economic Forum. We are grateful to ourlongstanding partners on previous editions, MarshMcLennan and Zurich Insurance Group. Theirgenerous inputs and in-depth guidance have beeninvaluable over the last 20 years. Terms of use and disclaimer This document is published by the World EconomicForum as a contribution to a project, insight areaor interaction. The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a result of acollaborative process facilitated and endorsed bythe World Economic Forum but whose results donot necessarily represent the views of the WorldEconomic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. All rights reserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, ortransmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise without theprior permission of the World Economic Forum. World Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744E-mail: contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org ISBN: 978-2-940631-30-8 The report and an interactive data platform areavailable at https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2025/. Copyright © 2025by the World Economic Forum Contents PrefaceOverview of methodologyKey findingsChapter 1: Global Risks 2025: A world of growing divisions1.1 The world in 20251.2 The path to 20271.3 “Geopolitical recession”1.4 Supercharged economic tensions1.5 Technology and polarizationEndnotesChapter 2: Global Risks 2035: The point of no return2.1 The world in 20352.2 Structural forces2.3 Pollution at a crossroads2.4 Losing control of biotech?2.5 Super-ageing societies2.6 Looking back: 20 years of theGlobal Risks ReportEndnotesAppendix A: Definitions and Global Risks ListAppendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025Appendix C: Executive Opinion Survey: National Risk PerceptionsAppendix D: Risk governancePartner InstitutesAcknowledgements456131315202834043434748536066707477809196102 Preface Economic risks have fallen in the rankings sincelast year, with inflation and the risk of an economicdownturn no longer top of mind among decision-makers and experts. But there is no room forcomplacency: if the coming months see a spiral oftariffs and other trade-restricting measures globally,the economic consequences could be significant.Elevated valuations in several asset classes makethem more vulnerable to these and other risks. Saadia ZahidiManaging Director The multi-decade structural forces highlighted inlast year’sGlobal Risks Report– technologicalacceleration, geostrategic shifts, climate changeand demographic bifurcation – and the interactionsthey have with each other have continued theirmarch onwards. The ensuing risks are becomingmore complex and urgent, and accentuating aparadigm shift in the world order characterized bygreater instability, polarizing narratives, eroding trustand insecurity. Moreover, this is occurring against abackground where today’s governance frameworksseem ill-equipped for addressing both known andemergent global risks or countering the fragility thatthose risks generate. In this report we dive deep into key global riskthemes – conflict, trade wars, and technologyand polarization as leading short- to medium-termconcerns, as well as pollution, biotech and super-ageing as areas where serious risks could unfoldover a longer-term time horizon. We also providea retrospective view of the last two decades ofassessing global risks. Twenty years ago, whenwe were preparing our firstGlobal Risks Report,the world was in a different place. Risks that havebeen well managed and mitigated since then werethose where the concerted and collective efforts ofmultistakeholder leaders helped to build commonground, compromises and mutually acceptablesolutions. It will be up to visionary leaders to involveall key stakeholders to address the risks nowforeseen for the next decade and to build durablepeace and prosperity. This is the 20th edition of theGlobal RisksReport. Looking back over the last two decades,environmental risks have steadily consolidated theirposition as the greatest source of long-term concern.This year’sGlobal Risks Perception Surveyshowsthat a sense of alarm is also mounting in the shorterterm: Environmental problems, from extreme weatherto pollution, are here now and the need to implementsolutions is urgent. The report highlights the latest findings from ourannualGlobal Risks Perception Survey, which thisyear brought together the collective intelligence ofover 900 global leaders across academia, business,government, international organizations and civilsociety. It also leverages insights from some 100thematic experts, including the risk specialists whoform the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, theGlobal Future Council on Complex Risks, and theChief Risk Officers Community.