中国住房财富重估：为何2026年对中国家庭至关重要

EquitiesREMD Housingwealthreset: Why 2026matters for China’shouseholds China ◆Householdwealth(property and cash only)is set tostabilisein 2026, driven by narrower home price decline… Michelle Kwok*Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6918 ◆…enhancing incentives for home purchase and likelyconsumption recovery Raymond Liu*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real Estate and ConglomeratesThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedraymond.w.m.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6743 ◆Likequality landlords CRL andSeazen(both Buy),C&D ourmost preferred residential developer;limited upsideforCRMixc (Hold) Oliver Yu*Analyst, Asia Real Estate The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 2050 Why is 2026 a pivotal year?Wereiterate our view thatthe housing market will bottomout in 2026,resulting inhousehold wealthstabilisationafter four difficult years.Whilehome pricesremainunder pressure,thedeclineshouldbe narrowerhaving peaked in2024.Thiscreatesa knock-on effect: improved sentimentwherestabilisedhouseholdbalance sheetsencourageconsumption.With investors still lightly positioned, sectorallocationsshouldrise as markets startto pricein this scenario. Stephen Wang*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1675 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations RMB28trnhousing wealth erosion(Figure7).This figure relates to those who havepurchased a property post-2017, as earlier buyers have generallyremainedprofitable, per our proprietary analysis.Thishas weighed on consumer sentiment,prompting households to favour precautionary savings over discretionary spending. RMB50trn excess deposits area buffer,between 2020-25 (Figure8).Evenif homeprice declines2-4% in 2026–equivalent toaRMB2.9-5.8trnvalue erosionfor homespurchased after 2017–lossescanbelargelymatchedbyconsistent excessdeposits.Thispaves the way for household wealth(housing plusdepositonly)stabilisation, a feel-good factor that encourages consumption(either housing or goods and services). Incentives for housing consumption:Housingdrag on GDPand householdbalance sheet has declined.We see enhanced incentivesfor home purchases,driven byourassumptionsthathome price is close to the bottomwhilepotentialdecline is modest,narrowing andacceptable from an end-user perspective.Importantly, our buy-versus-rent analysis indicates that buying remains financiallypreferable even if pricesremain under pressure. Quality landlordsbest positioned to captureconsumption upsideamid stabilisingwealth effect.The growing C-REITs market helpstounlock value for quality landlords.We likeCRL forits strong exposure to luxury retail,clear commitment tocapitalrecycling, and visible earnings recovery. Seazen (Buy)remains anunderappreciatedmass marketlandlord withdiversified funding channelsandencouraging progressinitsC-REITlisting.On the flip side, wehave a Hold rating onCR Mixcdue tolimitedearnings upside,constraint onoperating leverageimprovement,and relatively richvaluation. Our most preferred residential play is C&D (Buy)givenitsquality younglandbank, clear margin recovery trend,and strong expertise in luxury projects. HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and theanalyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Housing market, household wealth and consumption Housingprice has a strong correlation with consumption in tier-1/2 cities Taking around 70% of China households’wealth (PBOC’s China UrbanHouseholds’BalanceSheets Survey, 2019), property values are commonly accepted to have a significant impact onresidents’outlook for theirwealth andhow theyadjust theirconsumption behaviours. Oureconomistspointed out the ramifications in property marketsdentsconsumer confidence (Howto turn a new leaf (v), 27 Nov 2025)while stabilisation in property would be beneficial to helpingboostconsumption (China GDP and activity, 19 Jan 2026). Our consumer analyst, ErwanRambourg, also remain cautious on China's macro environment from consumption perspectiveas property market is still hurting (Global Luxury Goods, 4 Dec 2025). From investors’perspective, we have seen a consensus view among our clients that China’sconsumptionwould not really recover until property markets stabilise. In tier-1 and tier-2 cities,a 10% increase in house pricesleads to a 1.6% increase in consumption. However, thisrelationship is not observed in smallertier-3 andtier-4cities. BIS Working Papers No 1319, Housing wealth effects in China, by BenoitMojon et al.(Dec