2024年11月汽车行业趋势

Global overview EV sales to account for 59% of global lightvehicle sales by 2030, up from 10% in 2020.In Europe the shift towards electrificationwill accelerate in the coming years. InChina, the EV transition maintains a strongmomentum, and Chinese EV exports havegrown. However, this has increased therisk of trade frictions. Both the US and imposed by the next US administrationare a downside risk for the industry.In the long term, emerging Asian marketswill lead global production growth, aslow vehicle densities in China, India and After a 11.2% surge in 2023 we expectmotor vehicles and parts output growthto slow down to 0.5% in 2024. In keymarkets such as the US, China andEurope consumers have been reluctant Long-term outlook for EV sales still good,but trade frictions loom We expect the automotive industry togrow by 2.1% in 2025, supported by loosermonetary policies and a gradual recovery Currently electric vehicle (EV) sales arefacing headwinds in the US and Europe.However, we expect global hybrid and Industry trendsAutomotive Strengths and growth drivers Emerging markets.Low vehicle density and a growing middle-classin emerging markets is driving demand, especially in Asia. Geopolitical risks.The sector relies on a global network of suppliersand is vulnerable to protectionism, tariffs and disruptions. Green transport.New model launches and ranges, decreasingprices, purchase incentives and CO2 reduction policies will drive Advanced market demographics.High vehicle density and aging New players.Tech companies and start-ups are disrupting theEV market, creating new competitors for traditional automotive New technologies.McKinsey predicts the autonomous driving carmarket could reach sales of USD 400 billion by 2035. Supplier obsolescence.Manufacturers of combustion enginevehicle parts will need to change or face extinction. Automotive outlookAmericas USA Infrastructure is also a challenge, assignificant investment in a public networkof fast chargers and upgrades to theelectricity grid are required. The incomingTrump administration will most probably Car production and sales have decelerated After a 6.4% increase last year, US automotiveoutput growth is forecast to decelerate to3.8% in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025. After growing14.6% in 2023, car sales are expected toincrease by 2.8% in 2024 and by 3.7% in2025. Tighter car loan rates, higher costsfor insurance, maintenance and repair,and a softening labour market weigh onautomotives demand. That said, interest rate The credit risk in the sectoris relatively high / businessperformance in the sector The credit risk in the sector ispoor / business performancein the sector is weak compared Mexico Automotive producers show stable margins After an 8.2% increase last year, Mexicanautomotive production is forecast to contractby 0.7% in 2024, mainly due to lowerdemand from the US. In 2025 a modest 0.7%growth is expected. Automotive producers’margins have been good over the past 12 If the incoming Trump administrationimplements its fiscal policy proposals(substantial tax cuts, including reducingthe corporate tax rate to 15%), this wouldincrease the profitability of automotive A bumpy start for EV sales The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) stronglysupports domestic EV production and saleswith subsidies for local production and taxcredits for EV purchases. That said, US salesof EVs remain below expectations. Theyare predicted to grow by only 9.5% year-on-year in 2024 (compared to a 24% increaseglobally). Some US automotive producershave delayed investments and production Automotive outlookAsia Pacific China in 2024 and 19% year-on-year in 2025, whilesales of combustion engine cars continue to Subdued domestic demand and tariffs High credit risk for smaller private-owned After increasing 14% in 2023, we expectChinese automotive production growthto slow down to 5.2% in 2024 and to 1.0%in 2025. Lower consumer confidence isweighing on domestic car sales, which isnow forecast to contract by 3% this year.The EU and other countries have recentlyimposed import tariffs on Chinese EV Late payments are common in the Chineseautomotive sector, reinforced by the strongnegotiating power of manufacturers vis-à-vis suppliers. The booming EV market hasattracted many new players, which has ledto fierce competition. A price war that hasbeen going on since 2023, further intensifiedin 2024, putting margins of producers andsuppliers under pressure. Businesses arebeing forced to step up their R&D and launch In the domestic market performance in theEV and hybrid segments remains robust,with local brands increasing their marketshare. A tax incentive on EV passenger cars The credit risk situation in thesector is benign / businessperformance in the sector FairThe credit risk situation in thesector is average / businessperformance in the sectoris stable. India PoorThe credit risk in the sectoris relatively high / businessperformance in the sectoris below its long-term t