汽车行业趋势2025年11月

US tariffs, geopolitics andlower demand trigger acontraction in 2026 globalautomotive production November 2025 Global overview of electric vehicles (EVs) and other electrical systems, includingelectric motors, sensors, power steering and regenerative brakingsystems. The restrictions would have also applied to the export oflithium batteries. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) wouldhave faced significant exposure to risks from a potential supply chainbottleneck, which would have had a disproportionate impact on theelectric vehicle (EV) segment. The suspension grants some breathingroom for automotive producers, allowing them to diversify sourcingand build inventories. However, businesses should expect continuedvolatility given the one-year timeframe and lack of a formallysigned agreement. Breaking China´s commanding position in therare earths sector will remain a long-term challenge, with Beijingexpected to retain its strategic leverage over these critical minerals. Disruption of supply chains and rising costs due to tariffs We expect global motor vehicles and parts production to growby 1.6% in 2025, followed by a 1.2% contraction in 2026. Thisdecrease is partly due to the 15% import tariffs the US has imposedon its major automotive trading partners, namely Japan, Korea,and the EU. Within the USMCA region, vehicles are only tariffed oncontent that is not sourced from within North America. Tariffs willcreate headwinds in the US, where nearly half of cars are imported,and will affect the regional and global supply chains, increasingthe costs of imported components and materials. At the sametime rebound in Europe for 2026 will be modest after two years ofcontraction, while demand in China will cool down next year. Chinese rare earth export curbs have been suspended, but thethreat still looms Currently electric vehicle sales are facing headwinds in the US, as thegovernment has rolled back EV tax credits. In Europe´s main marketsdemand for EVs is growing only slowly. In China, the EV transitionmaintains a strong momentum, but both the US and the EU haveimposed punitive tariffs on Chinese EV imports. That said, we expectglobal hybrid and EV sales to account for 59% of global light vehiclesales by 2030, up from 10% in 2020. As part of a US-China agreement to de-escalate trade tensionson October 30, China announced the suspension of the exportcontrols of rare earths introduced earlier that month. This hasprovided some relief for Western automotive producers, as therestrictions would have affected critical minerals in the production Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Geopolitical risks.The sector relies on a global network ofsuppliers and is vulnerable to protectionism, tariffs anddisruptions. Emerging markets.Low vehicle density and a growing middle-class in emerging markets is driving demand, especially in Asia. Green transport.New model launches and ranges, decreasingprices, purchase incentives and CO2 reduction policies will drivedemand. Advanced market demographics.High vehicle density and agingpopulations imply a decrease in future demand. New players.Tech companies and start-ups are disrupting theEV market, creating new competitors for traditional automotivemanufacturing. New technologies.McKinsey predicts the autonomous driving carmarket could reach sales of USD 400 billion by 2035. Supplier obsolescence.Manufacturers of combustion enginevehicle parts will need to change or face extinction. AmericasAutomotive outlook USA consumers through higher sticker prices,risking lower sales volumes. For the timebeing US OEMs haven’t passed on priceincreases yet. Once they do, we expectprices to rise slowly. But any higher priceincreases would weigh on demand forboth imported and domestically producedvehicles. Tariffs trigger lower production and sales,but sector remains stable In 2025 the US automotive financelandscape has seen notable disruptions,including multiple subprime auto lenderbankruptcies. More significantly, therecent bankruptcy of a major aftermarketsupplier sent ripples through theprivate credit market, exposing therisks in complex working capital anddebt arrangements. Although tariffscontinue to dominate earnings calls,putting pressure on margins for OEMsand suppliers, the sector remainsfundamentally sound. More foreign investment and supplychains restructuring OEMs from around the world announcedsignificant US production capacityinvestments in 2025. These movesrepresent clear efforts to circumventtariff hurdles. However, the auto industryremains highly capital intensive, andthese investments will require time togenerate positive results. Supply chainrestructuring will remain a multi-yearprocess, as manufacturers work toreshore production and diversify suppliernetworks. Tariff policies will keep supplychains and pricing under pressure. After an expected 3.5% decrease this year,we forecast US automotive production tocontract by 4.5% in 2026, as tariffs an