中期经济展望-2025年3月

Table of Contents Executive summary 1.Global macroeconomic environment 1.1Mild Trump 2.0 binned1.2Turbulence but still a soft landing1.3Tariffs trigger new assumptions1.4Trump logic for tariffs1.5The US shoots itself in the foot1.6Pain for retaliating countries 2.Developments in major economies 2.1Advanced economies in the front lines of the trade war2.1.1US: cracks beginning to show2.1.2Eurozone: negative growth revisions in several major countries 2.2Diverging prospects beneath slightly brighter EME outlook Appendix15 Executive summary The US is escalating its global trade war more quickly and aggressively than we expected.Where we previously anticipated agradual phasing in of tariffs from later in the year, the US has cited emergency powers to already move forward with tariffson major trading partners like China, Canada and Mexico. We expect these to escalate further in the coming months and for This translates to a cumulative 0.4 percentage points trimmed off our global GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026.Thetrade war is causing lower growth through higher pressures on already sticky inflation and through high uncertainty which The US shoots itself in the foot, motivating the largest downward revision.The US economy entered the year running nearfull capacity, but volatile policymaking and uncertainty have dealt a blow to confidence. Lower investments and the eventual US allies in Europe and North America are set to suffer the most.One remarkable difference between this trade war the onein the first Trump administration is the more aggressive stance toward allies. Canada and Mexico have faced significant tariffvolatility and we expect them to escalate before the USMCA trade agreement renegotiations are concluded in mid-2026. Asthese markets are most closely integrated with the US economy, the negative impact on growth will be most severe, Emerging market economies are also exposed to the trade war but the relative impact is less severe (so far).ExcludingMexico, our outlook for EMEs is broadly unchanged since December. This is largely thanks to fiscal stimulus and monetaryeasing in China that helps stimulate domestic demand to offset the negative impacts of US trade measures. China’s direct Rising trade restrictions and tensions will drag on the nascent recovery in global trade. After rising 1.8% in 2024, in line withour forecast, we now predict international trade to expand only 2.5% in 2025 and 2026 – down from 3.3% and 3.0%respectively expected in December. Rising tariffs directly increase the costs of trade while higher uncertainty reduces 1.Global macroeconomic 1.2Turbulence but still a 1.1Mild Trump 2.0 binned In our December Economic Outlook we painted the picture of aglobal economy that was to develop relatively comfortably,albeit at an underwhelming pace. What we saw unfolding wasa soft landing, one wherein inflation was moving back to In our revised baseline scenario, Turbulence, of which theassumptions will be explained below, the global economytakes a hit. Still, it is relatively a mild one of an overall 0.2 ppt target levels without a recession. The caveat was that thenewly elected US president would not immediately after his inauguration on January 20 start shaking up the global orderby, amongst others, imposing the tariffs on imports into theUS he proposed during his presidential campaign.1The Figure 1.1 The US is hurting itself It turned out not a warning too many. As from the date ofinauguration an unprecedented number of executive orderswere signed and policies announced covering a broad range ofissues. Of course, we do not underestimate the relevance ofthe geopolitical pivot towards Russia and away from NATO.But arguably the most relevant for the global economy, atleast for the relevant forecast horizon, is tariffs. Imports from Such mildness does not hold for the US, which is taking thelargest hit. For the US 2025 our forecast is 0.6ppt lower thanin December, for 2026 0.2ppt on top of this hit. As to theEurozone, it was set for a hesitant growth recovery. Now thetariffs are expected to take their toll as well: a downward Table 1.1 More prominence for Emerging Asia adjustment of growth by 0.3ppt for both years. Theannounced increase in defence spending as well as moreGerman public spending will boost the economy only beyondthe forecast horizon. The Latin America & Caribbean (LAC)forecast downgrade partly reflects the tariff impact on Mexico, Despite these adjustments the overall growth picture remainsrelatively solid albeit underwhelming between 2.6% and 2.8%over the forecast period. That is similar to the past two years.Underwhelming in the sense that it is below levels seen duringthe two preceding decades. It is a divergent picture as well,with the US now significantly below the global average. Thesame holds for Eurozone growth, which is now forecasted government needs money to finance the extension of his taxcuts imposed during the first leg of his