行业趋势建筑2025年7月

Tariffs and relatedeconomic uncertainty Global overview Global residential construction is forecast to expand by 1.4% this year.There will be a subdued performance in some major economies, asstill elevated interest rates weigh on affordability of property anddemand for housing. The impact of interest rate cutting cycles shouldbe felt in 2026, with lower rates alleviating some of the pressure for The industry is facing less growth in 2025 After increasing 2.7% last year we expect global constructionoutput to slow down to 1.4% this year, followed by 2.1% in2026. Growth in advanced economies is predicted to increase The global trade of construction materials is not heavilyexposed to the US. The domestic nature of the constructionmarket and relatively regionalised supply chains mean that The civil engineering sector saw robust growth rates in 2023 and2024, as governments worldwide championed major infrastructureprojects and industrial policies in a bid to boost their economies.The segment is forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, However, the US tariffs and related retaliatory measures haveincreased business uncertainty, leading to lower commercialconstruction spending. Companies are delaying investmentdecisions until the outlook for the global trade environmentbecomes clearer, causing postponements and even Construction materials costs have decreased from historic peaksseen in 2022 and 2023, but remain elevated in many countries.This leads to ongoing pressure on margins and reluctance to committo building projects. A shortage of skilled construction labour andhigh labour costs are structural issues affecting many advanced Industry trendsConstruction Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Fiscal support.The Infrastructure Bill in the US, Recoveryand Resilience Facility in the EU, and China’s fiscal support ofinfrastructure projects and social housing drive building activity. Competitive environment.In most markets competition isintense, profit margins are thin and public buyers often pay late. Sustainability.There is increasing investment and demand forrenovation or upgrades to improve energy efficiency and to Labour shortage.A lack of skilled workers can increase wagecosts and is a serious issue in many advanced markets. This couldbecome a major structural problem in Europe in the mid-term. Sustainability.The sector accounts for a whopping 36% of theworld’s energy use and 40% of CO2 emissions. There is pressure AmericasConstruction outlook USA However, the large budget deficit couldimpact federal spending on construction in Rising uncertainty prompting businessesto delay building projects The producer price index for constructionmaterial remains much higher than beforethe recent inflationary period. It is likely tostabilise at a higher level, but tariffs couldcause prices to rise again. The constructionlabour market is tight, and the current We expect US construction outputgrowth to cool down to 0.7% in 2025 and0.4% in 2026. Trade policy uncertaintyand weakening consumer confidenceweigh on the US economy, constrainingconstruction through suppressed Overall resilient, but some issues remain For the time being the US constructionindustry as a whole remains resilient, despitepressure on profit margins due to elevatedinterest, materials, and labour costs. Weexpect no deterioration of the sector’s creditrisk in the coming six months. The sectorhas historically operated with long payment Rising uncertainty is promptingbusinesses to delay building projectsand withhold investment while awaitingfurther clarity. We expect non-residential Residential construction is expectedto grow by 0.9% in 2025 and by 1.1% in2026. Mortgage interest rates have stayedhigher than expected, nearing 7%, amiduncertainty over government spendingand tariffs. This will keep housing demandsubdued. Limited room for further Some construction businesses are holdinghigh levels of inventory and accountsreceivable, placing pressure on cash flows.Despite profitable operations, this could lead Matt Nathanis Atradius Underwriter inBaltimore, Maryland, USA.Construction sectorspecialist for the Americas. Asia PacificConstruction outlook China sectors are forecast to expand by an annualaverage of more than 6% from 2023 to Lower growth despite policy support We expect Chinese construction output toslow down to 1.7% this year and to grow2.3% in 2026. In order to ease the propertysector crisis, the government has providedmortgage rate cuts, eased restrictionson home purchase, and funded supportfor targeted property projects (e.g. socialhousing). Those policy efforts to boosthousing demand have shown some signs Despite the benign growth outlook, thesector is marred with issues. Delays,defaults and insolvencies are commondue to overrunning projects. Paymentdelays are expected to persist, influencedby ongoing bureaucratic challenges andfinancial constraints. Public and Private Southeast Asia Pu