美国关税如何影响全球制药行业

How are US tariffsthreats impacting theglobal pharmaceuticalindustry? Pharmaceuticals businesses throughout the world are reviewing theiroperational and trading strategies in light of the latest US tariff announcements.Although due to come into force at the beginning of October, the tariffs (whichrange from zero to 100%, with the 0% rate designed to bolster the made inAmerica brand) are currently paused. The pause is likely to represent the calmfound in eye of the storm. Pharmas throughout the world are now scramblingto calculate the impact of this latest announcement on their profits, trade routesand even the locations of their manufacturing sites before President Trumptakes his finger off the pause button. A good place to start assessing these latest tariffannouncements is to understand the importanceof the US within the global pharmaceutical market.North America is by far the largest market forpharmaceuticals, accounting for more than half of allof the world’s retail, hospital and prescription sales.The US is also an important node on the complexworldwide network of pharmaceuticals supply chains.Active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) manufacturing,packaging and clinical development often take placeacross several countries. We can safely say, therefore, that the imposition ofUS pharma tariffs, has the potential for far reachingand even critical impacts on the industry in every cornerof the world. “To put it simply,” said Judy Ji, AtradiusSenior Underwriter in Shanghai, China, “tariffs affectlogistics, trade flows, production costs and businessmargins. They can lead to potential shortages anddelays.” What is the current situation regarding US tariffsand pharmaceuticals? Section 232 Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act (1962) allowsthe restriction of imports that are found to threaten toimpair national security. The Trump administration is usingSection 232 powers to investigate the potential securityimpacts of imported pharmaceuticals and pharmaceuticalingredients, among others. Announcements on howSection 232 will apply to pharmaceutical imports will bemade by December 2025 Up until the end of September, pharmaceutical goodshave been exempted from the so-called reciprocaltariffs announced by President Trump back inApril. This is mainly because earlier this year, theUS government opened a national security probe,(Section 232) examining the possibility of tariffson pharma goods and the tariff pause button washit pending the outcome of the probe. However, regardless of the Section 232 investigation(the outcomes of which still loom), on September 26the Trump administration has now announceda sweeping new tariff policy targeting pharmaceuticalimports into the US. The announcement statedthat from October 1, all branded or patented drugsimported into the US will face 100% tariffs, unlessthe manufacturer has US-based manufacturingfacilities (or has US facilities ‘under construction’.)This was then temporarily paused and it is currentlyunclear when the 100% tariff threat will be enacted. In addition to this US-based manufacturing focus,the recent announcements require pharma firmsto practise what President Trump calls “most favourednation (MFN) pricing”. In effect, this requires pharmasto align their US prices to those charged in otherdeveloped nations. “The 15% tariff costs forEU business exportingpharmaceuticals to the UScould reach EUR 18 billion.” Rubén del Río Hernández, Team Leader LargeBuyer Unit at Atradius CyC, Madrid, Spain explained:“The fact is, EU producers of patented drugs are stillunsure as to whether the 100% tariff costs wouldapply to them, or whether this would remain at the15% rate previously agreed between the US andthe EU. Estimates suggest the 15% tariff costs forEuropean businesses on pharmaceutical exportsto the US would amount to EUR 18 billion.” Thatrepresents a pretty sizeable dent in the industry’sprofit margins. Rubén del Río Hernández The September 26 announcement has already seensome large pharmaceutical producers, most notablyPfizer, announce a reduction in prescription drugprices for US consumers and a commitment to investadditional financial resources in US manufacturing. Rubén added: “The Trump administration, in anattempt to boost its pharmaceutical industry at theexpense of the European one, could also establishselective price limits, undermining the profits ofEuropean pharmaceutical companies or those thatdo not manufacture drugs on US soil.” How will tariff increases present a downside riskto global markets? A large proportion of the profits of many globalpharmaceutical companies are earned in the UnitedStates, where, unlike in many European countries,drug prices are hardly regulated by the government.The introduction of the 15% tariffs, or especially anescalation to the 100% tariffs makes exporting into thislucrative market more costly and more complicated. The bulk of Chinese and Indian pharma exports tothe US is mainly generics rather than branded orp