SpaceX启动报告：金星和木星何时对齐（英）2026

LATE-STAGE COMPANY RESEARCHSpaceX Initiation Report:When Venus andJupiter Align Institutional Research Group Franco GrandaSenior Research Analyst,Private Company Coveragefranco.granda@pitchbook.com pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on March 2, 2026 A financial model for SpaceX covering its IPO and beyond PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Contents Key takeaways •Launch services:SpaceX has flipped launch services from a bespoke, capacity-scarceoffering into an industrial operation defined by cadence and reuse. In 2025 , SpaceX flew165 Falcon 9 missions (and 170 total orbital attempts, including Starship),1representingabout 52% of all global orbital launches in 2025. We estimate the company has r eflownFalcon first-stage boosters 529 times out of 630 possible uses (84% reuse ra te),reducing launch costs by as much as 65%. SpaceX is the default logistics provider forcommercial, civil, and national security payloads—not merely because it is cheaper, butbecause it delivers schedule certainty at a tempo no competitor can match. $10BTotal raised $1.25TLast knownvaluation •Starlink:Starlink extends SpaceX’s advantage by vertically integrating the fullconnectivity loop—satellite design, manufacturing, launch, and network operations—atunprecedented scale. The constellation comprises over 9,600 operational satellites(about 66% of all active satellites globally).2Starlink serves 9.2 million subscribersacross over 150 countries,3having doubled its base for two consecutive years. Weestimate Starlink generated $10.6 billion in revenue and $5.8 billion in EBITDA (54%margin) in 2025, comprising about 67% of total company revenue. 8.55 (out of 10)Private Business Quality Score $1.4TAnalyst estimated valuation •Our proprietary financial model:We have built a granular, bottom-up financial modelthat breaks down both of SpaceX’s businesses into their own income statements, withtheir own sets of drivers. As a private company, SpaceX has not filed public financialstatements, so our work triangulates from public disclosures, regulatory filings,third-party datasets, and our own analysis of the business. Additionally, we have notcommunicated with the company about our financial estimates. We believe this modelis of significant value to those looking to dive deep into the business, understand howdifferent variables impact results, and assess the growth. Everything we discuss inthis report is directly tied to our assumptions in our financial model. We est imate thecompany generated nearly $16 billion in revenue and $7.5 billion in EBITDA in 2025, Primary industries:Space technology, satellitecommunication, and AI driven almost entirely by explosive subscriber growth within the Starlink segment.Looking ahead, we forecast 2040 revenues of $150 billion and EBITDA of $95 billion. Ahead of what is set to be thebiggest IPO in history, we arelaunching coverage of SpaceX.We view SpaceX as the categoryleader across two foundationallayers of the modern spaceeconomy: first, space logistics(getting mass to orbit repeatedly,reliably, and cheaply), and second,space-enabled connectivity(turning satellites in low Earthorbit into a global, software-defined telecommunicationsplatform). The company operatestwo highly synergistic businesssegments: launch servicesand Starlink. •The xAI merger:On February 2, 2026, SpaceX announced the acquisition of privateartificial intelligence company xAI in a deal valuing the combined entity at $1.3 trillion.We discuss the acquisition in this report; however, the core focus of this report is on theoriginal SpaceX business. Additionally, our model for SpaceX excludes any potentialcontribution from the recent merger with xAI. We will integrate xAI into our estimatesonce we have a clearer understanding of the implications for the business. In themeantime, we recommend investors read our coming Late Stage Company Researchreport that dives into the business of the top private AI companies, including xAI, formore information about the company, its value, and a better understanding of whatSpaceX is acquiring beyond the color we provide here. •Valuing SpaceX:At $1.5 trillion, SpaceX is priced between the 75th percentile and90th percentile peer ERGs in our direct comp SOTP ($1.1 trillion to $1.6 trillion) andrequires top-decile conviction in the large-cap growth universe (1.9x ERG, second onlyto Palantir). Both frameworks validate the IPO as expensive but not irrational—providedStarship commercializes on or near its proposed timeline and D2C scales as projected.Execution timing, not the directional thesis, is the primary risk. We view the asymmetryas favorable for investors with a 3-5 year horizon and tolerance for Musk-amplifiedvolatility. •Operational excellence:SpaceX’s moat is a compounding learning loop: Verticalintegration keeps critical knowledge in-house, extrem