美国电气设备行业：2025年四季度公用事业资本开支近况：多年度资本开支上行周期

State of Utility Capex 4Q25 - multi-year upgrades & higher '26spend supports accelerating organic growth for exposed coverage In this note, we update our State of Utility Capex series, a comprehensive monitor of shortand long-term US electric utility capex trends providing insight into the fundamentals ofelectrical equipment manufacturers and contractors.To gain recurring access to theexcel-based version of this data feed, please reach out to your salesperson. Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Utility capex grew 12% Y/Y in 4Q.This represented 30% Q/Q growth, 10ppts higherthan the 20% seasonal sequential growth pattern. Overall, ‘25 capex did fall short ofconsensus’ 16% growth expectation as of 3 months ago to 10%, though it still representsan acceleration from 4% growth in ‘24. Moreover, consensus expects an even greateracceleration in ‘26 capex of 21% growth, which is 3x higher than the industry’s historical8% trend. Estimates are also moving higher: 21% growth in ‘26 is 3ppts higher vs. 3M ago,and 9ppts higher vs. 6M ago. 1Q26 capex is currently expected to grow 11% Q/Q, wellabove the seasonal pattern of down 18%. Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com 4Q was another strong quarter formulti-year capex raises, driven by generation.Utilities added ~$94B to their multi-year capex plans this quarter, and now expect to invest$1.15T in capex through 2030, up 22% Y/Y and 9% Q/Q.What drove the upgrades?60% of incremental capex is going into generation with updated multi-year generationcapex plans up 39% vs. prior plans (vs. transmission +16% and distribution +10%). We alsointroduce alarge load pipeline trackerwhich identifies 447 GW of cumulative capacity inutilities’ plans (largely data centers), representing 33% of current US generation capacity. Utility spend expected to go up across all categories in ‘26; generation seeing thestrongest growth, distribution re-accelerating.Utilities are anticipating growing theircapex budgets most in generation (+34% Y/Y in ‘26) and transmission (+24% Y/Y in‘26). Distribution is expected to grow +14%, up from 9% growth in 3Q, which points to asignificant re-acceleration in spend this year. Generation spend saw the most meaningfulraise since 3Q, going from 13% Y/Y growth to 34% (vs. transmission up only 2ppts to 24%Y/Y growth). While the pie continues to grow, generation and transmission’s share of capexcontinues eating into distribution which has lost 4ppts of share since ‘24. Bottom line:if Exhibits 3-8 are any indication, 21% capex growth in ‘26 is supportive ofan organic growth acceleration across our exposed names likePWR,HUBBandETN.However, we wonder whether the trajectory of ‘25 capex underwhelming vs. expectationsjust 3M ago is a signal that the utility capex super-cycle is beginning to hit more tangibleobstacles from the likes of NIMBY and political red tape. The EIA recently cuts its short-term load growth forecasts in December, citing a slower-than-expected ramp in large loadconnections in ERCOT and PJM (see note; pg. 23), PJM gave confirmation to this in its 2026Load Forecast report dialing back its load growth forecast through 2032 vs. last year citingstricter data center vetting; and CBRE just noted that the total amount of new data centercapacity under construction in primary US marketsdeclinedfor the first time since ‘20 (6GW YE25 vs. 6.4GW YE24). Point being, growth is unlikely to be a straight line (which isrelevant given sector valuations), but as long as long-term load forecasts continue risingand utilities’ large load pipelines remain healthy, sentiment justifiably remains bullish. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rateETN(TP $428) andHUBB(TP $553) as Outperform, andPWR(TP $515) as Market-Perform. Our 4Q utility capextracking exercise is further supportive of the short and long-term tailwinds seen in the electrification space. We see all threenames benefiting from attractive multi-year end market growth, particularly in the data center space, where bottlenecks persist,demand for equipment and labor is high, and backlogs remain healthy. Notable capex increases this quarter:Dukeraised its plan 18% to $103B (largest in the IOU universe) driven by generation(up 42% vs. prior plan; ‘26 up 30%) and distribution (+12% vs. prior plan; ‘26 up 14%). The CEO stated that they’re nowdeploying “over $1B of capital every month”.Edisonraised by 20% to $38B.Entergyraised by 6% Q/Q to $43.4B driven bygeneration (raised +31% vs. prior plan) and transmission (+15% vs. prior plan), though ‘26 distribution was raised 10%.Evergyraised by 24% to $21.6B driven by generation (+51% vs. prior plan) and transmission (+19%).Exelonraised by 8% to $41.3Bdriven by transmission (+18% vs. prior plan) and distribution spend in ‘26 was raised by +6%.FirstEnergyraised by 30% to$36B driven by distribution (up 40% vs. prior plan) and transmission (up 35