1QFY26结果：人工智能势头强劲，但年度经常性收入增速放缓影响情绪

ARR deceleration weighs on 1QFY26 results:Solid AI momentum, but ARRdeceleration weighs on sentiment sentiment Target PriceUS$350.00(Previous TPUS$585.00)Up/Downside29.7%Current PriceUS$269.78 Adobereported 1QFY26results: total revenuegrew by 12% YoY to US$6.40bn,and non-GAAP net income increased by 12% YoY to US$2.49bn, both largelyin line withBloombergconsensus estimates. Total ARR growthdeceleratedto+10.9% YoY in 1QFY26 (4QFY25: +11.5%YoY),mainly due to the softtraditionalStock business and the initiatives to drive freemium MAU growth. Theannouncementof CEO transitionalsoadded toshort-term uncertainty. Thatsaid,managementreaffirmedpreviously-setFY26financialtargets, with totalrevenue up by 9-10% YoY and total ending ARR up by 10.2% YoY. AI-first ARRmore than tripled YoY in 1QFY26, supported by the strong performance of US Software & IT Services Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk SolidAI product momentum.Creative&marketing professionalssubscription revenuegrew by 11% YoY to US$4.39bn in 1QFY26, driven by1) strong momentum of Firefly: Firefly ending ARR surpassed US$250mn,withgenerative credit consumptionup byover 45%QoQ in 1QFY26, andthe video generation actions grew by over 8 times YoY; 2) robust growth offreemium users: creative freemium MAU crossed 80mn,up byover 50%YoY; 3) over 30% YoY growth in ending ARR ofGenStudio and AEP & Shuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hk AI integration to drive revenue and engagement growth.Businessprofessionals &consumers subscription revenue increased by 16% YoY toUS$1.78bn in 1QFY26, mainlyattributableto: 1) Acrobat AIAssistantARRgrew by c.3 times YoY; 2) Acrobat and Express MAU increased by c.20%YoY; 3)strongupgrades to Acrobat Studio. The company launchedAcrobatand Express for ChatGPTin 1QFY26, which further expandedtheir user Inline 2QFY26 outlook.For 2QFY26E,managementguidedtotal revenueto increase by 9-10% YoY to US$6.43-6.48bn,largely in line with theconsensus estimate but a slight deceleration compared to 1QFY26. We areupbeat on the momentum of Adobe’s AI products, but it still takes time forthem to grow to a level that can offset the decline in certain traditional Source: FactSet Business forecasts update and valuation Valuation We valueAdobeat US$141.1bn (US$350.0per share) based on15x 2026EP/E. Our targetP/Eis at adiscountto the sector average (22x),as Adobe is at a more mature business Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to thesecurities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission)(1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issueof this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potentialreturn of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expectedto underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest inse