CrowdStrike控股公司：预计第一季度净新增年度经常性收入为1.75亿美元，随着正常季节性回归；股票价格昂贵，但迈向100亿美元的道路仍是重点

Modeling $175M in 1Q NNARR, asNormal Seasonality Returns;Expensive Stock, But Path to $10BStill the Story CRWDOVERWEIGHTUnchanged U.S.SoftwarePOSITIVEUnchanged CRWD reports 1Q earnings on 06/03afterthe close. We model1Q net new ARR of ~$175M, but could see an upside scenarioof $200M+. Four thoughts below... Price TargetUSD 500.00raised 5% from USD 475.00 Price (27-May-25)USD 472.22Potential Upside/Downside+5.9%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Four points into CRWD's 1Q26: (1) we model 1Q net new ARR of ~$175M, but could see an upsidescenario of $200M+ based on adjusted 4Q25 NNARR of $280M (adding back ~$56M in CCP ARR),and assuming historical 4Q/1Q q/q seasonality – our checks were strong in the US (~68% of totalrevenue) on Falcon Flex/NG SIEM whilesofterin EMEA in April (~16% of total revenue); (2) wecome to our FY NNARR growth of 3% y/y by thinking about sequential growth through the yearas visibility improves, which alone should drive a 2H26 y/y acceleration as comps ease – there is~$80M of CCP ARR that arguably could renew at higher run-rates in 2H26, which we think de-risks our estimate; (3) we expect FCF margins to trough in 1Q26 before accelerating in 2H,leading to an exit rate of ~27% and FY27 FCF margin of 30%+ – remember the LT target of~34-38% FCF margin in FY29 remains unchanged; (4) anecdotally, we believe there are morebears than bulls on this stock given valuation, the intra-quarter headlines aroundCarahsoft,insider selling, etc., and it's worth remembering that CRWD has not necessarily been up T+1over the last few quarters – but that's not the call here, as we think the longer-term call ismoving back to NNARR growth and the path to $10B in ARR. We raise our PT to $500 (from $475)as a result, which is based on ~42x our FY31E FCF of ~$3.7B, discounted back 3 years at a 10%WACC. We raise our FY31E FCF multiple to ~42x (from ~40x) to reflect our positive long-termoutlook. Market Cap (USD mn)117612Shares Outstanding (mn)249.06Free Float (%)96.2952 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)5.1Dividend Yield (%)N/AReturn on Equity TTM (%)-0.69Current BVPS (USD)13.23Source: Bloomberg Price PerformanceExchange-Nasdaq52 Week rangeUSD 459.93-200.81 •We model 1Q net new ARR of ~$175M or base ARR growth of ~21%, but could see anupside scenario of $200M based on historical 4Q24/1Q25 q/q seasonality, adjusting for4Q25 CCP impacts of $56M; our checks were strong in the US given Falcon Flex and SIEM,butsofterin Europe (which made up ~16% of total revenue in FY25).We model net newARR of ~$175M, or base ARR growth of ~21% y/y – recall, this is in-line with CRWD's directionalcommentary of 1Q net new ARR being down ~21-23%, similar to last year's 4Q24/1Q25 q/qseasonality. A few things to note: (1) CCPs had a $56M impact on 4Q25 NNARR, so arguablythe cleaner number for 4Q25 was closer to $280M (which is roughly flat y/y) – if we assumenormal 4Q/1Q seasonality on this number, we could see an upside scenario of $200M+; (2) ourchecks sounded strong in the US – we heard more about the flexibility of Falcon Flex licensing(which is a big part of our long-term bull case on CRWD), and also heard more about next-gen Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting U.S.SoftwareSaket Kalia, CFA+1 212 526 8465saket.kalia@barclays.comBCI, US Alyssa Lee+1 212 526 7608alyssa.lee@barclays.comBCI, US SIEM where partners are seeing an opportunity to lean in with a disruptive solution; (3) forwhatever reason, we picked up moresoftnessin Europe particularly in April (which isconsistent with PANW's commentary on the month's performance) – and picked up that alarge energy company with ~20k employees replaced CRWD with S. That said, rememberEMEA as a region generates ~16% of total revenue – so it matters, but strength in the US (at68% of total revenue) could make up forsoftnessin other regions given its sheer size. •On the FY, we model net new ARR growth of ~3% y/y – we expect net new ARR toimprove sequentially throughout the year and reaccelerate in 2H as comps ease; thequestion is what will NRR be on the $80M in CCP ARR sold in 2H25 when it's time torenew in 2H26 – in our experience with these models, customers tend to buy more"tokens" of usage upon renewal.On FY26, we model net new ARR of ~$835M or ~3%growth, which frankly we get to by thinking about NNARR on a sequential basis, as CRWDnoted visibility is returning and indicated 1Q seasonality would be more in-line with prior1Qs. Specifically, we think about 1Q NNARR down ~21% q/q, 10-13% q/q growth in both 2Qand 3Q and then mid 20% q/q growth in 4Q, which is in-line with CRWD's pre-outage FY24seasonality. From a y/y perspective, this should result in reacceleration in 2H NNARRprimarily as the comps ease – now there is a bull case on the $80M in CCP ARR that was soldin FY25 at discounts which shouldroll-offa year later, which arguably de-risks our estimatefor this year. The question is what will be the net revenue retention on this cohort ofcustomers that purchased CCPs whe