每 日早 盘 观 察 每日早盘观察 目录 金融衍生品 股指期货:等待局势明朗................................................................................................................................4国债期货:情绪企稳,空单止盈....................................................................................................................5 农产品 蛋白粕:供应仍有影响盘面高位震荡..........................................................................................................6白糖:国际糖价收涨国内糖价偏强走势......................................................................................................6油脂板块:生柴预期向好,油脂或高位震荡................................................................................................8玉米/玉米淀粉:产区现货偏强,盘面高位震荡...........................................................................................9生猪:供应压力较大价格震荡运行..............................................................................................................9花生:花生现货稳定,花生盘面底部震荡..................................................................................................10鸡蛋:淘鸡积极性下降蛋价稳定为主......................................................................................................11苹果:苹果库存下降价格较为坚挺............................................................................................................12棉花:棉价下方支撑大走势震荡偏强........................................................................................................12 黑色金属 钢材:原料存在支持,钢价维持震荡..........................................................................................................14双焦:观望为主,亦可逢低试多..................................................................................................................14铁矿:供应扰动加大,现货高位套保为主..................................................................................................15铁合金:短期驱动偏强,但盈亏比降低......................................................................................................16 有色金属 金银:地缘形势反复金银再度陷入震荡.....................................................................................................17铂钯:中东问题持续博弈贵金属进入震荡行情.........................................................................................18铜:地缘政治风险扰动不断,铜价持续震荡..............................................................................................18氧化铝:震荡运行..........................................................................................................................................19电解铝:中东冲突持续但当地铝暂停减产.................................................................................................20铸造铝合金:随铝价震荡运行......................................................................................................................21锌:警惕资金面对锌价影响..........................................................................................................................22 铅:逢低买入..................................................................................................................................................23镍:海峡通行仍受阻,镍价偏强运行..........................................................................................................23不锈钢:成本支撑,跟随镍价运行..............................................................................................................24工业硅:区间震荡..........................................................................................................................................25多晶硅:基本面无明显改善,震荡偏弱......................................................................................................26碳酸锂:供需矛盾不突出,高位震荡..........................................................................................................26锡:避险情绪高涨,锡价震荡走跌..............................................................................................................27 航运及碳排放 集运:船舶遇袭事件仍在发生,中东地缘局势反复..................................................................................29干散货运价:中澳铁矿石定价权谈判陷入僵局,未来Capesize船型市场租金高度或将受限..............30碳排放:国内交易保持平淡欧盟内部对于EU ETS改革分歧继续.........................................................31 能源化工 原油:风险外溢范围扩大,布油收于每桶100美元上方..........................................................................33沥青:供应限量涨价,下游观望..................................................................................................................33燃料油:新加坡燃油库存连续三周攀升......................................................................................................34LPG:跟随油价走势........................................................................................................................................35天然气:卡塔尔持续停产,供应紧张累积..................................................................................................36PX&PTA:供应存计划外缩量预期.................................................................................................................37BZ&EB:纯苯苯乙烯国内负荷均下降...........................................................................................................37乙二醇:乙烯裂解制企业降负......................................................................................................................38短纤:跟随成本端偏强