风险回顾：2026年，全球经济的关键时刻？
RISK REVIEW 2026−amoment of truth for the global economy? Paris, 16 February 2026–Momentumfor theglobal economyhas been variedmoving into2026. Weexpect growth of +2.6%this year–averyminor downtick Inlight of this, Coface has madesevencountry risk assessment changes (sixupgrades) andninesector rating changes (sevenupgrades). Key figures: •+2.6%: projected global growth in 2026•+3.9%: growth in global trade in 2025 2025displayedthe resilience of globalisation 2025lived up to expectations in that history went full throttle,drivensimultaneously by turmoil and stabilising global growth, which was in line with ourinitial growth forecast of +2.8%.Theparadoxical result can be explained by two mainfactors. The first is that the shock to the global economy was not a patch on the 2026 begins under heavy pressure 2026has started under a large cloud ofuncertainty, often in the presence ofoverwhelmingrisks.Geopolitical riskshavematerialised,as recent eventshaveshown inLatin America,IranandGreenland.Financial riskshave emergedon backofthedebtandasset valuationlevels of most assetsin a sticky high-interest rate segments of the population, particularly in Europe. Not to mention, of course, Global growth slows but continues to hold up The global economic outlookcontinues to be patchy. In the US,the growthprojectionof+2.2%is supported bydurablysolid consumption despite a significantrise in bankruptcies in H2 2025(+15%). In the eurozone, activity is expected to reach slowto+4.4%and weigh on regional momentum,while Southeast Asia’sperformance is one ofuneven resilience. Conversely, Indiahasconfirmedits role asa global growth engine,onesupported by strong domestic demand and proactive In this context, oil prices arepredictedtocontractfrom USD 68 per Brent barrel in2025 to aroundUSD 60, reflecting moderate demand-ledgrowth and a significantincrease in supply. Despitepotentialepisodes of volatilitysparked bygeopolitics, Global trade defies expectations Despite concernscaused byUS tariff offensives, global trade surprisedmore than a fewin 2025,with 3.9%growthin trade volumesdrivenbystrongUSimports and an increase inUScustoms levies thatultimatelyproved to be Vietnamhas been a major beneficiary of supply chain reorganisation (+43%in USimports from January to November 2025), while Europe has stabilised its externaltrade.Agradual slowdownis expectedfor 2026alongsidefalling freight rates due Country risk: 7 changes, including 6 upgrades 🔼Upgrades •Chile (A4 → A3):rising investments in copper and energy, supported by astabilised institutional environment.•Poland (A4 → A3):strong investment momentum thanks to EU funds anddurablysolid household consumption. Sweden (A3 → A2): resilient private 🔽Downgrades Senegal(B→C):fiscal slippage and unsustainable debt complicatingdiscussions with the IMF. Access the full studyhere. COFACEPRESS OFFICEHAVASAdrien Billet: +33 6 59 46 59 15Malcolm Biiga: +33 6 47 09 92 66adrien.billet@coface.comLucie Bolelli: +33 6 42 18 30 82coface@havas.com COFACE: FOR TRADE Whatever their size, location or sector, Coface provides 100,000 clients across some 200 markets. with afull range of solutions: Trade Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Single Riskinsurance, Surety Bonds, Factoring. Every day, Coface leverages its unique expertise and cutting-edge
