2026年全球经济展望：稳定但脆弱的全球增长

Steady, but fragile global growth. Introduction. About ACCA. We are ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants),a globally recognised professional accountancy body providingqualifications and advancing standards in accountancy worldwide. This is our third annual economic outlook publication. Wehope it will help you and your stakeholders navigate the manychallenges, risks and opportunities in the global economy inthe year ahead. Founded in 1904 to widen access to the accountancy profession,we’ve long championed inclusion and today proudly support a diversecommunity of over252,500members and526,000future membersin180countries. InSection 1, we discuss the prospects for the global economy and key countries in 2026,as well as some of the major risks. Our forward-looking qualifications, continuous learning and insightsare respected and valued by employers in every sector. They equipindividuals with the business and finance expertise and ethical judgmentto create, protect, and report the sustainable value delivered byorganisations and economies. InSection 2, we interview former IMF Chief Economist Ken Rogoff about his views on the outlookfor the global economy and discuss his recent bookOur Dollar, Your Problem. InSection 3, we highlight and discuss the key risk events to watch in 2026. Guided by our purpose and values, our vision is to develop theaccountancy profession the world needs. Partnering with policymakers,standard setters, the donor community, educators and other accountancybodies, we’re strengthening and building a profession that drives asustainable future for all. InSection 4, we highlight three key trends we will be closely following in the coming year:i) developments with artificial intelligence (AI); ii) developments in advanced economy bondmarkets; and iii) developments with global trade. Finally, inSection 5, we publish summaries of interviews with three business leaders, whoprovide their perspectives on how they see the prospects for the world and their regionsand countries, and, where relevant, their companies in 2026. Find out more ataccaglobal.com Contents. Introduction2 Section 2: Interview with former IMF Chief Economist Ken Rogoff13 Section 3: Key events in 202616 Section 4: Three key trends we are watching in 202618 i)Developments with AI18ii)Developments in advanced economy bond markets19iii)Developments with global trade19 Section 5: How do business leaders see the world in 2026?21 Interview 1:Wu Chen21Interview 2:Mike Fowler, FCCA23Interview 3:Ebrima Sawaneh, FCCA24 References25 Executivesummary. Global growth proved more resilient than expectedin 2025, despite the major disruptions to globaltrade and heightened policy and geopoliticaluncertainty. On a central case scenario, the global economy looks set toexpand at a reasonable, if not particularly exciting, pace onceagain in 2026. Growth will be supported by the easing in monetarypolicy across much of the world over previous quarters, fiscalstimulus in key countries, the current global artificial intelligence (AI)boom, and, most likely, some reduction in trade policy uncertaintycompared with 2025. But it is a fragile and volatile backdrop, amidheightened uncertainty, not least on the geopolitical front, and awide array of risks, which are primarily on the downside. The US economy looks set to be the strongest performer onceagain among the major advanced economies, aided by fiscalstimulus, supportive financial conditions, and the AI boom. Withimportant elections looming, President Trump may also doubledown on efforts to boost the economy and could begin toshow more restraint on some of his policies that have unsettledbusinesses and investors. Growth is likely to remain positive, butsluggish in the UK and euro area, with fiscal stimulus in Germany supporting activity in the latter. Growth in China is generallyexpected to moderate in 2026, while remaining faster than theglobal average. The Indian economy has proved resilient to thelarge increase in US import tariffs, benefiting from robust consumerspending growth. It is likely to remain the world’s fastest-growingmajor economy once again in 2026, and recent reforms couldpotentially help improve its longer-term performance. may lose their majority, which would constrain President Trump’sroom for manoeuvre on policy for the remainder of his term. Localelections in France, Germany and the UK will also receive attention,as investors gauge the upward momentum of right-wing populistparties. Meanwhile, personnel changes and other developmentsat the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will be very closely watched, withPresident Trump set to announce a new Chair. Concerns aboutthreats to the Fed’s independence could build in 2026. ‘I see hugeuncertaintyaround the globaleconomy whichis not reflected infinancial marketsto the extent itshould be.’ We interviewed former IMF Chief Economist Ken Rogoff abouthis views on the global economy and discussed his recent bookOu