中东局势升级：能源处于中心，风险远远超出

Middle East escalation: Energy at the center, risks far Paris,3March2026–The military escalation between the United States, Israel andIran is putting extreme pressure on energy markets. Although no major supply Key figures: •20%of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz•Up to USD 147/barrel: a historic level that Brent crude could exceed in the event ‘A conflict limited to a few days or weeks–the most likely scenario at present–shouldhave a limited impact. However, if the conflict were to continue, its macroeconomic An immediate short-term effect on energy markets The US and Israeli strikes in Iran mark a major turning point for energy markets. At theopening of trading on Monday morning, Brent jumped bymore than 10%,mainly reflecting an increase inthegeopoliticalrisk Prior to this escalation, oilmarketswere largely insurplus. Abundant supply,drivenbynon-OPEC+ in 2025). The conflict is a game changer, reintroducing extreme uncertainty about the major shock. Prolonged or repeated interruptions could plausibly push Brent intotriple-digit territory, with the possibility of exceeding the February 2022 peak (122 Oil: the risk of infrastructure destruction Although Iran is not the region's leading producer, a disruption to its supply wouldhave an immediate impact on already fragile markets. With more than3 millionbarrels per day produced and nearlyover1.5million exported—mainly to China—an Beyond Iranian supply or a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran could alsotarget oil infrastructure in other Gulf countries. The impact would then depend on theextent of the damage and the duration of the disruption, in a context where OPEC+'s Ripple effects far beyond oil The stakes go far beyond the oil market alone. The Strait of Hormuz is also crucial forthe transport of liquefied natural gas(LNG),fertilisers, industrial metals(aluminium)and petrochemicals.In addition, other strategic chokepoints, such as Bab el-Mandeb1 or the Suez Canal, could also be affected in the event of regional escalation.Thiscouldincreasingfreightcostsand shipping insurance premiums. This gradual disruption of supply chains poses a growing risk of shortages and The long-term risk: a global macroeconomic shock An extreme scenario of oil prices remaining above USD 100 per barrel would trigger anew surge in global inflation and would likely force central banks to reverse theirstrategy, moving from monetary easing to widespread tightening. A prolonged USD15 increase in Brent crude oil prices could thus reduce global growth by around 0.2 COFACE: FOR TRADE As a global leading player in trade credit risk management for more than 75 years, Coface helps Whatever their size, location or sector, Coface provides 100,000 clients across some 200 markets. with afull range of solutions: Trade Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Single Riskinsurance, Surety Bonds, Factoring. Every day, Coface leverages its unique expertise and cutting-edge