巴西养牛业的甲烷减排：财务机遇与挑战

Authors from Climate Bonds, Agrifood Standards: Contents India Langley and Reyes Tirado Summary3 Editorial support: Stephanie Edghill 1. Introduction: Brazilian methane emissions5 Design: Godfrey Design, 2. Risks of business as usual6 © Published by Climate Bonds Initiative, February 2026 3. Opportunities to maximise methanereductions in Brazilian cattle10 www.climatebonds.net 4. Conclusion and recommendations forinvestors13 The authors are grateful to Leandro Waquil, Climate BondsBrazil finance specialist, for providing critical, country-specificexpertise and nuanced insights into the Brazilian context,which was essential for grounding the analysis and ensuring thereport’s accuracy. Appendix 1. Methane mitigation potential,economic opportunity, and risks associatedwith the implementation of methane abatementinterventions in Brazilian cattle systems14 Appendix 2. Further information on methanemitigation potential25 List of acronyms Appendix 3. Methane intensity per kilogramme offood27 3-NOP: 3–NitrooxypropanolAD: Anaerobic digestionAvg.: AverageBAU: Business as usualCH₄: MethaneCO₂e: Carbon dioxide equivalentCT: Condensed tanninsDM: Dry matterEUDR: European Union Deforestation RegulationGHG: Greenhouse gasGt: GigatonneHa: HectareILO: International Labour OrganizationIPR: Inevitable policy responseKg: KilogrammeMt: MegatonneR&D: Research and developmentUSD: United States dollar Appendix 4. Methane abatement interventionscovered by Climate Bonds Criteria28 Endnotes29 Brazil’s cattle sector: a methane challenge and transition opportunity The Brazilian cattle sector, central to the Brazilian economy, is at a critical juncture. It emits 71% ofnational methane output (approx. 416 Mt CO₂e/year) so has become a critical focus for the country’sGHG emissions. Yet, ambitious climate scenarios predict a shift in global trends with a reduction of up to52% in beef demand by 2050. Additionally, financial institutions managing over USD121tn are screeningsupply chains for deforestation and emissions risk. Without strategic diversification and optimisation,low-efficiency producers, especially in North and Northeast Brazil, face growing financial, regulatory, andreputational exposure. This report outlines risks and opportunities for three strategic pathways for methane abatement andeconomic resilience: •Diversification away from cattle into poultry, pork, plant-based and alternative proteins,and reforestation. •Optimisation of Brazilian pasture cattle systems through improved forage, and silvopasture.•Direct methane abatement via breeding, feed additives, and manure management. Main findings Long term (to 2050), diversification away from cattle offers the highest methane reduction potentialwith a 40% reduction in herd size resulting in up to 163.4 Mt CO₂e/year of avoided emissions. Plant-basedand alternative proteins deliver a 100% reduction, while poultry and pork offer 96–99% with existingmarket demand. Reforestation adds carbon sequestration benefits. Enhanced cattle intensification can reduce methane emissions from pasture-raised cattle (90–87% ofBrazil’s herd) by up to 30%. Silvopasture and improved forage reduce enteric methane emissions by6–25% and improve soil, water, and farm income. Feed additives can cut enteric emissions by up to30%, but are limited to feedlot systems (10–13% of Brazilian herds). Reduction in absolute methaneemissions requires limiting animal numbers. Brazil is well-positioned to lead this transition, with the world’s second-largest cattle herd, vastdegraded pastureland, strong research institutions, and infrastructure for poultry and soy. Its naturalcapital also positions it to benefit from biodiversity finance. More granular assessments of context-specific potential and on-the-ground needs are essential tobuilding investor confidence.Implementing these methane abatement measures requires significanteffort from multiple stakeholders so the development of case studies demonstrates application in thereal world. This report encapsulates the reach of technical possibilities to provide a bridge betweeninvestigation and the real economy. Recommendations for investors • Integrate methane metrics into environmental, social, and governance (ESG) frameworksand engage portfolio companies on credible transition plans aligned with Brazil’s climate goals andinternational regulations (e.g., EU Deforestation Regulation).• Support a dual-track transitionby funding short-term optimisation (e.g., silvopasture, improvedforage) while investing in long-term diversification (e.g., non-ruminant meat, plant-based proteins,and reforestation).• Prioritise nature-positive strategiesby investing in silvopasture, pasture restoration, and reforestationto unlock methane reductions, biodiversity gains, and carbon-credit revenue.• Support high-impact innovationthrough emerging technologies such as alternative proteins andgenetic improvements to capture climate return on investment (ROI) and future m