小企业检查站：招聘打嗝案例

Small Business Checkpoint: A case of the hiring hiccups 19 August 2025 Key takeaways •According to Bank of America small business data, payments to hiring firms were down for a third consecutive month. Andalthough more small businesses are expecting better business conditions, concerns about quality of labor as the single mostimportant problem rose 31% month-over-month in July, according to the National Federation of Independent Business. •Are tariffs contributing to the hiring slowdown? Overall small business profitability growth remains positive according to Bankof America data, but of the limited subset of small businesses that make direct tariff payments to Customs, such outlays havesurged 170% since January. And for companies with revenues >$1M, there was a stark slowdown in hiring around "LiberationDay." •Across sectors, construction and manufacturing payments to hiring firms were up 33% from the 2024 average in July. This islikely a tale of two policy effects: on one hand, reshoring incentives could boost hiring; on the other, restricting the supply ofworkers has led to labor shortages. The latter is most evident in Bank of America small business payroll payments' growth,where wage inflation is most prominent in sectors such as construction and restaurants. Small Business Checkpointis a regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It aims to provide a real-time assessment of small businessspending activities and financial well-being, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America’s proprietary data. Such data is not intended to bereflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial condition or performance of Bank of America. Small business hiring fell for the third consecutive monthOnce again, in July, small business optimism rose, as did uncertainty, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) (Exhibit 1). Although better business conditions are expected by business owners in the coming months,concerns about the quality of labor rose 31% month-over-month in July, suggesting some struggle in the small business hiringmarket. In fact, using Bank of America small business payments to hiring firms data, in July, small business hiring was down 6.7% year-over-year (YoY) on a three-month moving average (Exhibit 2). This was the third consecutive monthly decline. Exhibit1:Small business optimism improved, but uncertaintyincreased as well in JulySmall business optimism index (left-hand side (lhs), monthly, seasonally Exhibit2:Small business payments to hiring firms were down6.7% YoY in July, a decline from the prior monthSmall business hiring payments (monthly, 3-month moving average, adjusted, indexed, 1986 =100) and uncertainty index (right-hand side(rhs), monthly) YoY%) Are tariffs contributing to the hiring slowdown?Though more trade deals have been finalized, tariffs remain not only a looming and predominant component of business uncertainty, but also now profit margin evaluations. Based on an estimate before Trump’s duties took effect on August 7, thecombined annual tariff impact to US small businesses is $202 billion, which works out to about $856,000 per firm each year,according to the US Chamber of Commerce. Using Bank of America internal data, we examined payments to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to better understandthe impact of these levies. In July, tariff payments to the CBP per small business client surged 170% compared to January 2025(Exhibit 3). It’s important to note this data is limited in that only a small subset of Bank of America small business customersmake direct tariff payments to CBP, given many do not have substantial international exposure, while others rely on customsbrokers. These tariff payments may be negatively impacting profitability for some small firms. Although, small business profitability, asproxied by the ratio of payments into small business accounts compared to the outflow, continues to rise. It was up 0.5% YoY inJuly, on a three-month moving average, but has been decelerating since the end of last year (Exhibit 4). Plus, according to theNFIB, the percentage of small business owners reporting poor sales as their top business problem rose one point to 11% in July–the highest level of reported poor sales since February 2021. Exhibit3:Of the small subset of small businessclientsmakingCBPpayments directly, these were up almost 170% from the start ofthis yearPayments to CBP per small business client (monthly, indexed, January Exhibit4:Small business profitability growth has largely beendecelerating since the end of last yearSmall business account inflow-to-outflow ratio (YoY%, monthly, 3- month moving average) 2025 = 100) The smallest of small businesses increased hiring in JulyAcross revenue tiers, for firms with revenues >$1M, there was a stark slowdown in hiring in July, particularly around“Liberation Day,”suggesting uncertainty could have played in role i