2025年全球气候亮点（GCH）报告

ECMWF Communication SectionCopernicus Team European Centre for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts, ECMWFRobert-Schuman-Platz , 53175 Bonn, Germanycopernicus-press@ecmwf.int Published January 14th2026 updated January 28th2026(figures 3 and 9 and the associated text have been updatedto reflect full availability of global datasets for 2025). DOI:https://doi.org/10.24381/b3nm-p354 GCH editorial team (ECMWF):Lead editor and coordination:Francesca GuglielmoCo-authors:Julien Nicolas, Freja Vamborg,Rebecca Emerton, Adrian Simmons, Samantha BurgessCopy editing:Chelsea SnellData visualization:Anna LombardiOther Contributors:Michael Buchwitz(University of Bremen), Mark Parrington (ECMWF) Communications (ECMWF):Isabelle Boscaro-Clarke,Elisabeth Mittelbach, Eva Remete, Maximilian Lingen,Nuria Lopez, Rafael Cereceda Other organisations:Blossom.it,Eau de Web,Greenhouse Communications This Global Climate Highlights (GCH) report from the Copernicus Climate ChangeService (C3S) provides a brief synopsis of the state of global climate in 2025,mainly based on data from the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis produced bythe European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The GlobalClimate Highlights summarises the state of global air temperature, global sea surfacetemperature and sea ice in both polar regions. This report also assesses currentglobal average temperatures relative to the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement,adopted by the Conference of the Parties in 2015. ERA5 is one of six international datasets used to track global average temperature.In addition to this report, which includes data from theJapanese Reanalysis forThree Quarters of a Century (JRA-3Q), further 2025 global temperature updateswill be released by the UK Met Office, NASA, NOAA, Berkeley Earth and the WorldMeteorological Organisation (WMO), based on their respective datasets.A complementary report on the European State of the Climate, providing more detailon conditions in Europe, will be published by ECMWF and the C3S in April 2026,in partnership with the WMO. Tableof Contents 2025: the third-warmest year on record→6 Sea surface temperature→18 How exceptional were the past three years?→22 Sea ice→26 A world of extreme events→28 Long-term trends in climate indicators→32 Paris Agreement targets-where arewe now and where are we going?→34 List of figures To explore details on data, analysis the methodsfollowed, please visit theAbout the data and methodssection online. 2025 continues the shift towards higher global temperaturesDistribution of daily global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) from 1940 to 2025 Figure 1. Distribution of daily global average surface air temperature anomalies (°C)relative to 1991–2020 for each year from 1940 to 2025. Selected importantclimate events have been annotated. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. Visualisation inspired by the work ofErwan Rivault (BBC). Key temperature statistics for 2025 Key temperature statistics for 2025. The estimates for the globe refer to theaverage surface air temperature over land and ocean, and for Europe overland only. The extra-polar ocean used for sea surface temperature refers tothe 60°N–60°S domain. Statistics for other geographic domains are availablein theGraphics Gallery. Figure 2. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. 2025: thethird-warmestyear on record 2025 ranks as the third-warmest yearon record1, following the unprecedentedtemperatures observed in 2023 and 2024.It was marginally cooler than 2023,while 2024 remains the warmest year onrecord and the first year with an averagetemperature clearly exceeding 1.5°Cabove the pre-industrial level. 2025 sawexceptional near-surface air and sea surfacetemperatures, extreme events, includingfloods, heatwaves and wildfires. Preliminarydata2indicate that greenhouse gasconcentrations continued to increase in 2025. 1All findings in this report, unless otherwise stated, are based on the ERA5 global climate reanalysis dataset produced by the European Centrefor Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and covering the period from January 1940 to present and used for C3S’ routine climatemonitoring. To extend the record back to 1850 from 1940 we leverage longer global temperature records. Datasets other than ERA5 mayhave a slightly different ranking for 2025. The global temperatures are presented relative to the pre-industrial level, which uses an average for1850–1900 from the IPCC 6thAssessment Report, and to a modern reference period, using the average for 1991–2020. 2Preliminary satellite data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), show that column-averaged concentrations of carbondioxide and methane, which reachedrecord levelsin 2024, continued to increase in 2025. An update on growth rates and concentrations ofthese two gases, based on consolidated estimates, will be provided in April 2026. Exceptional heatcontinues to redefineclimate records: firstthree-year averageabove 1.5°C 2025 was