2025年全球能源和气候模型文档

Documentation - 2025 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAMembercountries: IEAAssociationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Section1:Overview of model and scenarios..........................................................................................................51.1GEC Model scenarios.........................................................................................................................61.2Selected developments in 2025........................................................................................................81.3GEC Model overview.......................................................................................................................10Section2:Cross-cutting inputs and assumptions.................................................................................................172.1Population assumptions..................................................................................................................172.2Macroeconomic assumptions..........................................................................................................182.3Prices...............................................................................................................................................192.4Policies.............................................................................................................................................222.5Techno-economic inputs.................................................................................................................23Section3:End-use sectors....................................................................................................................................253.1Industry............................................................................................................................................253.2Transport.........................................................................................................................................303.3Buildings..........................................................................................................................................413.4Hourly electricity demand and demand-side response...................................................................46Section4:Electricity generation and heat production..........................................................................................514.1Electricity generation.......................................................................................................................514.2Value-adjusted Levelised Cost of Electricity....................................................................................564.3Electricity transmission and distribution networks.........................................................................594.4Hourly electricity models.................................................................................................................624.5Mini-and off-grid power systems...................................................................................................654.6Renewables andcombined heat and power modules....................................................................654.7Hydrogen and ammonia in electricity generation...........................................................................674.8Battery storage................................................................................................................................67Section5:Other energy transformation...............................................................................................................695.1Oil refining and trade.......................................................................................................................695.2Coal-to-liquids, Gas-to-liquids, Coal-to-gas.............................................................