2024年全球能源和气候模型2024

Documentation - 2024 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policies thatwill enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its31member countries,13associationcountries and beyond. IEA membercountries: IEA associationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty overany territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory,city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Section 1: Overview of model and scenarios ..........................................................................................................51.1GEC Model scenarios .........................................................................................................................61.2Selected developments in 2024 ........................................................................................................91.3GEC Model overview .......................................................................................................................12Section 2: Cross-cutting inputs and assumptions .................................................................................................172.1Population assumptions ..................................................................................................................172.2Macroeconomic assumptions..........................................................................................................182.3Prices ...............................................................................................................................................192.4Policies.............................................................................................................................................222.5Techno-economic inputs .................................................................................................................23Section 3: End-use sectors ....................................................................................................................................253.1Industry............................................................................................................................................253.2Transport .........................................................................................................................................313.3Buildings ..........................................................................................................................................413.4Hourly electricity demand and demand-side response...................................................................44Section 4: Electricity generation and heat production..........................................................................................494.1Electricity generation.......................................................................................................................494.2Value-adjusted Levelised Cost of Electricity ....................................................................................544.3Electricity transmission and distribution networks .........................................................................574.4Hourly models .................................................................................................................................614.5Mini- and off-grid power systems ...................................................................................................634.6Renewables and combined heat and power modules ....................................................................634.7Hydrogen and ammonia in electricity generation...........................................................................654.8Battery storage ................................................................................................................................65Section 5: Other energy transformation ...............................................................................................................675.1Oil refining and trade.......................................................................................................................675.2Coal-to-liquids, Gas-to-liquids, Coal-to-gas ...............................