实现小发展中国家的持续经济增长：伯利兹入门

Towards Achieving SustainedEconomic Growth in Small Developing Ziad Amer, Jiajia Gu, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Bunyada Laoprapassorn, Shane Lowe WP/26/41 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2026MAR IMF Working Paper Western HemisphereDepartment Towards Achieving Sustained Economic Growth in Small Developing States: A Primer on Belize Prepared byZiad Amer,Jiajia Gu,Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Bunyada Laoprapassorn, Shane Lowe* IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:The small developing states (SDS) have unique economic characteristics and face specificconstraints that shape their economic performance. We study a set of key challenges facing SDS using thecase of Belize. The empirical analysis centers on (i) improving access to finance; (ii) exploring drivers of laborforce participation with a view to increasing the labor force contribution to growth; and (iii) assessing thetourism sector’s capacity constraints, and arrives at the following findings. First, it shows that both demand andsupply factors contribute to constraining private sector credit, primarily via the level of lending rates, complex RECOMMENDED CITATION:Amer, Ziad, Jiajia Gu, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Bunyada Laoprapassorn, ShaneLowe (2026), “Towards Achieving Sustained Economic Growth in Small Developing States: A Primer on WORKING PAPERS Towards Achieving Sustained EconomicGrowth in Small Developing States: A Prepared byZiad Amer,Jiajia Gu,Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Bunyada Laoprapassorn, Shane Lowe Contents Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................3 Access to Finance in Small Developing States..............................................................................................4The Case of Belize.........................................................................................................................................6The Belizean Financial System...............................................................................................................6Understanding the Obstacles to Demand for and Supply of Credit in Belize..........................................8 Labor Force Participation in Small Developing States.................................................................................14The Case of Belize.......................................................................................................................................14Drivers of Labor Force Participation.............................................................................................................15Context..................................................................................................................................................15 Assessing Tourism Sector’s Capacity Constraints.......................................................................................21Tourism Relevance for Small Developing States.........................................................................................21Belize’s Tourism Sector................................................................................................................................21 References.........................................................................................................................................................29 FIGURES 1. Cumulative Impulse Responses to 1 pp Cuts in Interest Rate on Savings.....................................................112. Cumulative Responses of Various Lending Rates to 1 pp Cuts in Interest Rate............................................123. Sectoral Employment Allocation.....................................................................................................................154. Employment in the Services Sector: Overview and Tourism's Role...............................................................185. Recent Developments in the Caribbean Tourism Sector................................................................................226. Carrying Capacity and Access to Electricity....................................................................................................237. Assessment of Hotel Capacity Utilization in Belize.........................................................................................25 TABLES 1. Regression Estimates of Equations 2a and 2b..............................................................................................132. Gender Gap in LFP and Sectoral Employment Share................................