旅游业对小发展中国家增长的长期和短期影响

Long and Short-termImpact of Tourism onGrowth in SmallDeveloping States Daniel Carvalho Cunha, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Pedro Jucá Maciel WP/25/103 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025MAY IMF Working PaperAfrican Department Long and Short-term Impact of Tourism on Growth in Small Developing StatesPrepared byDanielCarvalho Cunha, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Pedro Jucá Maciel* Authorized for distribution byJustin Tyson and MartinSchindlerMay2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:We explore the relationship of recessions and tourism cycles on the economic performance oftourism-dependent Small Developing States (SDS). Using local projections regressions, we examine how thesecycles affect potential output growth and its drivers—investment and employment—and estimate the short-runelasticity of tourism growth to economic activity. Our findings reveal that the long-term influence of recessionsare less persistent in SDS than in larger emerging markets, as tourist-dependent economies experience fasterrecoveries from recessions. Moreover, we use Cabo Verde as a natural experiment to assess the short-termrelation of tourism on growth and found that tourism's short-run elasticity to growth is around 0.4 over 12months, with limited spillovers to non-tourism areas. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Cunha,Daniel, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Pedro Maciel (2025).“Long and Short-term Impact of Tourism on Growth in Small Developing States”. IMF Working PaperNo.25/103(Washington,DC: International Monetary Fund). Long and Short-term Impact of Tourism on Growth in SmallDeveloping States Daniel Carvalho Cunha, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Pedro Juc´a Maciel† May 16, 2025 Abstract We explore the relationship of recessions and tourism cycles on the economic performanceof tourism-dependent Small Developing States (SDS). Using local projections regressions, weexamine how these cycles affect potential output growth and its drivers—investment and em-ployment—and estimate the short-run elasticity of tourism growth to economic activity. Ourfindings reveal that the long-term influence of recessions are less persistent in SDS than in largeremerging markets, as tourist-dependent economies experience faster recoveries from recessions.Moreover, we use Cabo Verde as a natural experiment to assess the short-term relation oftourism on growth and found that tourism’s short-run elasticity to growth is around 0.4 over12 months, with limited spillovers to non-tourism areas. JEL: H63, E43, R50 Keywords:Small Developing States, Tourism, Growth 1Introduction How resilient is potential growth to tourism busts, and how large are the short-run spillovers fromtourism to other sectors in Small Developing States (SDS)? These are the central questions thispaper seeks to answer.We find that recessions have less persistent impacts on potential growthin SDS compared to emerging markets1, and that the short-run elasticity of GDP to tourism inCabo Verde is around 0.4, with limited spillovers to non-tourism regions. These findings highlightboth the resilience and vulnerability of SDS to tourism shocks and offer clear policy implications,including the need for stronger integration of non-tourism regions into the tourism value chain. To provide a comprehensive understanding, the analysis is divided into two distinct temporal hori-zons. The long-term assessment section examines how tourism affects potential growth and otherkey economic variables, such as investment, labor, and productivity.The short-term assessmentsection estimates the elasticity of economic activity to changes in tourism over a twelve-monthhorizon Using Cabo Verde as a natural experiment, we study how immediate shifts in tourisminfluence local economic metrics, particularly through variations in island-level VAT collections.Cabo Verde provides an ideal natural experiment to analyze the short-term relations of tourismon economic activity, thanks to its unique geographic and economic characteristics. The country’sarchipelagic structure, characterized by limited inter-island connectivity and high reliance on inter-national imports, ensures isolation of tourism shocks on specific islands, satisfying critical economet-ric assumptions (SUTVA). Moreover, by focusing on Cabo Verde, our analysis avoids complexitiesfrom cross-border tourist spillovers common in broader studies, and leverages the country’s robusthigh-frequency data to precisely estimate tourism elasticity and short-run economic performance. The vulnerab