脆弱的繁荣：小岛屿发展中国家的自然灾害与经济增长

#12 February 2026UNCTAD/WP/2026/1 Fragile Prosperity:Natural Disasters andEconomic Growthin Small IslandDeveloping States Giovanni ValensisiPolicy Analysis andResearch BranchDivision for Africa, LeastDeveloped Countries andSpecial ProgrammesUNCTADgiovanni.valensisi@unctad.org Abstract This study re-examines the complex link between climate-relateddisasters and economic growth in developingcountries,with a focus on the specific vulnerabilities ofSmallIsland Developing States(SIDS).It underscorestheimportance of combining diverse disaster metrics tofully capture the risks faced by SIDS. Using system GMMestimation,the analysis reveals that SIDS experiencedisproportionatelysevere medium-term growth setbackscompared to other developing nations, even after accountingforstandard growth determinants.This can be linked tosector-specific pathways of vulnerability, as storms have arelatively more pronounced impact on services growth, andfloods on industrial value-added growth. H. Birce AkayPolicy Analysis andResearch BranchDivision for Africa, LeastDeveloped Countries andSpecial Programmes Key words Natural disasters, economic growth, climate change, smallisland developing states (SIDS), vulnerability. Workingpaper#12February 2026Workingpaper#12February 2026 Contents 1. Introduction.............................................................................. 32. Literature review...................................................................... 53. Data and related sources....................................................... 83.1 Natural disasters’ metrics.................................................................83.2 SIDS specificities through the lenses of disaster metrics...........123.3 Dependent and control variables...................................................144. Model specifications and estimation strategy................... 164.1 Introducing Disaster Variables into the Growth Model................164.2 Estimation Methodology.................................................................185. Results.................................................................................... 216. Robustness checks............................................................... 276.1 Capital Investment...........................................................................276.2 Subsample Stability.........................................................................287. Conclusions.......................................................................... 30References................................................................................. 31APPENDIX................................................................................. 33 Acknowledgements This paper benefited from the comments and suggestions of Junior Davis, StefanCsordas, Anja Slany and Anida Yupari of UNCTAD, as well as from the followingexternal experts: Steve Bond, Afuge J. Akame, Marco Cokic and two anonymousreferees. Research for the paper was originally carried out during H. Birce Akay’sinternship at the UNCTAD Division for Africa, Least Developed Countries andSpecial Programmes. 1.Introduction Natural disasters are becoming a more prominent feature of our day-to-day lives.Scientific evidence has unequivocally warned that rising temperatures trigger anincrease in the frequency and intensity of weather and climate extremes, withnatural hazards entailing harsh socioeconomic impacts on the most vulnerableeconomies like Least Developed Countries (LDCs) or Small Island DevelopingStates (SIDS) (Coronese et al., 2019; IPCC, 2022; UNCTAD, 2022).1Moreover,this trend will continue to intensify as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissionsprogressively destabilize the climate system and surface temperatures breakrecord after record. Against this background, several initiatives have been implemented to enhancethe monitoring and assessment of disaster risks under the Sendai Framework forDisaster Risk Reduction.2A range of alternative indicators have been proposed togauge related countries’ vulnerabilities, including the Economic and EnvironmentalVulnerability Index, the University of Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index and the Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (United Nations, 2024a,2024b). Moreover, after years of intense negotiations, the 27th Conference ofthe Parties (COP 27) of the United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) agreed to establish a fund for responding to loss and damageassociated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weatherevents and slow onset events (UNCTAD, 2023). If the ongoing improvements in disaster risk monitoring and the operationalization ofthe loss and damage fund testify to the growing relevance of this issue in internationaldebates, the analysis of the impacts of natural disasters on macroeconomicvariables warrants further research. In particular, the understanding of the nexusbetween natural disasters and economic growth