国会预算办公室用于估算2025年和解法案宏观经济影响的关键方法

Key MethodsThat CBO Used to Estimate theMacroeconomic Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act Staff of the Congressional Budget Officecommunications@cbo.gov Working Paper 2026-01 February 2026 To enhance the transparency of the work of the Congressional Budget Office and to encourage externalreview of that work, CBO’s working paper series includes papers that provide technical descriptions ofofficial CBO analyses as well as papers that represent independent research by CBO analysts. Papers in thisseries are available athttp://go.usa.gov/xUzd7. John Seliski, Emily Stern, and Heidi Williams(a consultant to CBO)coordinated thewriting of thepaper.Inadditiontothose coordinators, the followingCBOstaffcontributed to the analysis:YeJin Ahn,ChristinaHawley Anthony,Joyce Bai, Lea Bart,Lesley Baseman,Aaron Betz,Susan Yeh Beyer,Sheila Campbell,Dorian Carloni,Nicholas Chase,Jeremy Crimm,Daniel Crown,Molly Dahl,Elizabeth Cove Delisle,BernaDemiralp,Devrim Demirel,Sean Dunbar,Justin Falk,Michael Falkenheim,Daniel Fried,Ann E. Futrell,Ron Gecan,Jennifer Gray (formerly of CBO),Bilal Habib,Jessica Hale,Edward Harris,Tamara Hayford,Rebecca Heller,Peter Herman,Evan Herrnstadt,Nianyi Hong,Claire Hou,David Hughes,Justin Humphrey,Nadia Karamcheva,Katherine Keisler-Starkey,Joseph Kile,Wendy Kiska,Leah Koestner,Aaron Krupkin,Mark Lasky,Willow Latham-Proença(formerly of CBO),Lilia G. Ledezma,Junghoon Lee,Chandler Lester,Kyoung Mook Lim,Jared Maeda,LucilleMarret,Sarah Masi,John McClelland,Alexandra Minicozzi,Shannon Mok,Jaeger Nelson,Xiaotong Niu,Christine Ostrowski,Daniel Page,Sam Papenfuss,JamesPearce,Daria Pelech,Aaron Pervin,Garrett Quenneville,Natalia Reyes,Alaina Rhee,Molly Saunders-Scott,Jeffrey Schafer,Kurt Seibert,MollyShatto,Ian Shayne,Chad Shirley,Delaney Smith,Robert Stewart,NoahSwart,Julie Topoleski,David Torregrosa,Carolyn Ugolino,Emily Vreeland,MatthewWilson, CalebWroblewski, Griffin Young, Timothy Young,andAmy Zettle. The staff of the Joint Committee onTaxation also contributed to the analysis. Jeffrey Kling reviewed the paper, andScott Craverprovided editorial assistance.ThecoordinatorsthankDonald Marron (a consultant to CBO),William Peterman, and thestaff of the Joint Committee on Taxationforhelpful comments and suggestions. Abstract Public Law 119-21, referred to here as the 2025 reconciliation act,includeda wide range ofprovisions thataffectpoliciesgoverning federalrevenuesand spending. This paper describes thekey methodsthat the Congressional Budget Officeused to estimate thelaw’smacroeconomiceffects. For eachof the law’sprovisions,CBO identifiedkeychannels through whichthe U.S.economywouldbeaffectedand then translatedthose effects into inputs forits analytical models.For cases in whichthose inputs could be incorporated into CBO’sexisting modeling approaches,this paperrefersreadersto the agency’s previous work describingthoseapproaches.Forcasesinwhichnew methods were needed to evaluatethe law’smacroeconomic effects,thosemethodsare described ingreaterdetail. Keywords:investment, fiscal policy, multiplier, labor supply, interest rates, federal budget JEL Classification:E22, E24, E32, E62, E63, H30, H50, H60, J20, O40 Table of ContentsIntroduction.....................................................................................................................................3 Short-Term Effects..........................................................................................................................5MPCs and the Share of Constrained and Unconstrained Households........................................8Distributional Effects................................................................................................................11MPCs Applied to Changes in Medicaid Policy........................................................................12Longer-Term Effects.....................................................................................................................14Effects on the Labor Supply.....................................................................................................15Effects on the Capital Stock......................................................................................................19Effects on Potential Total Factor Productivity..........................................................................22Additional Methods......................................................................................................................25Interest Rates, the User Cost of Capital, and Crowding Out....................................................25States’ Fiscal Responses...........................................................................................................31Budgetary Feedback..................................................................................................................32Uncertainty of CBO’s Estimates.............................................................................................