中国政策：全国人民代表大会会议的政策信号

Policy signals from NPC meetings Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk The 2026 Government Work Report signals a pragmatic downshift in growthambition alongside a marginally softer fiscal impulse, reflecting policymakers’willingness to tolerate slower near-term activity as the economy transitionstoward“new quality productive forces.”Policy emphasis shifts towardinvestment, withexpanded fiscal resources reallocated to crowd in privatecapital into emerging sectors such as AI infrastructure, digital, and greenindustries.Incremental support for consumption and housing largely meetsmarketexpectations, with limited upside in social welfare,trade-in subsidiesandadditional housing market stimulus.Importantly,authorities elevate Growth targets loweredwhile fiscal expansion marginally scaledback.The GDP growth target wasrevised downfrom last year’s 5% to a“4.5–5%” range for 2026, well-anticipated by the market. This reflects (i)demand pull-forward in 2025 from the trade-in program and “front-loadedexports,” which makes ittechnicallyharder to sustain last year’s pace, and(ii) policymakers’ greater tolerance for slower near-term growth during the“transition from old to new growth drivers”in exchange for higher-qualitymedium-to-long-term development.Correspondingly, the policy stance ofthe 2026broadfiscal deficit is slightly weaker, edging down to 7.9% of GDPfrom 8.0% in 2025. The general public budget deficit remains at4% of GDPatRMB5.89tn; central government ultra-long special bonds are maintainedat RMB1.3tn (0.9% of GDP); and local governmentspecial bonds are keptat RMB4.4tn (3% of GDP), implying demand support is below marketexpectations. Within the ultra-long bond program, RMB800bnis allocated Stronger policy emphasis on investment.The Government Work Reportdevotes substantial space to expanding investment, which we expect to bea key policy priority this year. Ultra-long special bonds allocate a combinedRMB1.0tn to the “Two Major” projects and equipment upgrades (broadlyunchangedfrom 2025). Central government budgetary investment is set atRMB755bn,up RMB20bn from 2025.The PBoC will also establishRMB800bn of policy-based financial instruments to crowd in private capitalinto infrastructure investment, up RMB300bnfrom2025, with funds likely Supportfor consumption and property broadly in line withexpectations.The report reiterates the importance of boostingconsumption, but incremental measures are limited: trade-in subsidies aretrimmedto RMB250bn from RMB300bn, while social security supportshows no upside surprise:minimum basic pensions for urban and ruralresidents rise by only RMB20, unchanged from last year’s increase. A newRMB100bn“special fund to boost domestic demand” will be used for fiscalinterest subsidies, including on loans to SMEs and micro businesses,service-sector operators,a dedicated guarantee scheme for privateinvestment, equipment-upgrade loans, and personal consumption loans.Incremental policy directions include invigorating services consumption, Reflation objective reiterated and made more explicit.The annual CPItarget remainsunchangedat2%. However, the reportfor the first timestates an intention to “improve overall supply-demand conditions” and “turnthe overall price level from negative to positive,” with “moderate andreasonable” increases in consumer prices,signalingreflationas a moreprominent policy objective. The fiscal budget implies 2026 nominal GDPgrowth of around 5%, consistent with roughly a 0.4% GDP deflator and4.6% real GDP growth.Policy measures include intensifying the anti- Policy support for “new quality productive forces” and tech sectorslargely as expected.Key changes vs. last year include: (i) for the first time,the report designates four emerging pillar industries:integratedcircuits,aerospace, biomedicine, and the low-altitude economy,adding integratedcircuits and biomedicine to last year’s list; (ii) it introduces “future energy”andbrain–computer interfaces as future industries and calls for Source:Wind, CMBIGMestimates Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwithrespect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be,directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in th