科摩罗的税收和支出政策：微观模拟的分配效应

Tax and ExpenditurePolicies in Comoros: Distributive Effects Using Micro- Al-Mouksit Akimand JiajiaGu SIP/2026/016 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available at 2026MAR Tax and Expenditure Policies in Comoros: Distributive Effects Using Micro-Simulations, Union of the Authorized for distributionbyRuud Vermeulen IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:This paper assesses the distributional impact of tax and expenditure policies in Comoros using amicrosimulation framework based on the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology and household surveydata. It evaluates key revenue-raising reforms under the IMF Extended Credit Facility and post-WTOaccession, including tax base broadening, the removal of tax expenditures, and changes in border taxation. RECOMMENDED CITATION:: Akim, A.-M and Gu, J. (2026). Tax and Expenditure Policies in Comoros:Distributive Effects Using Micro-Simulations, Union of the Comoros, SIP/2026/016. Washington, D.C.: SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Tax and Expenditure Policies inComoros: Distributive Effects Using Micro-Simulations Prepared by Al-Mouksit Akim and JiajiaGu UNION OF THE COMOROS SELECTED ISSUES January 27, 2026 ApprovedByThe African Prepared By Al-Mouksit Akim (AFR), Jiajia Gu (SPR) CONTENTS TAX AND EXPENDITURE POLICIES IN COMOROS: DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS USING A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________3B. Methodology ________________________________________________________________________4C. Results _____________________________________________________________________________12D. Conclusion_________________________________________________________________________18E. Policy Recommendations __________________________________________________________19 FIGURES1. CEQ Income Concepts _______________________________________________________________5 2. Comparison Between the Observed Taxable Income and the Theoretical TaxableIncome _________________________________________________________________________________73. Comparison Between the Observed Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) Values ofImported Goods and their Theoretical Values __________________________________________94. Impact of Broadening the Tax Base and the Tax Expenditure on Income Inequality15 TABLES1. Tax Schedule _________________________________________________________________________6 2. Implicit Tax Rates for Specific Taxes on Oil Products and Rice________________________83. Category of Tax Revenues Included in the Microsimulation Model_________________104. SCH Fuel Price Structure and Profit in 2024 ________________________________________11 UNION OF THE COMOROS 6. Impact of Broadening the Tax Base and the Tax Expenditure on Selected References ___________________________________________________________________________________ 20 APPENDIX I . Tax and Expenditures Policies in Comoros _________________________________________________21 TAX AND EXPENDITURE POLICIES IN COMOROS: A.Introduction 1.Fiscal policy is the primary tool for governments to redistribute income consistentwith socio-economic policy priorities. In Comoros where elevated debt levels coupled withinstitutional fragility constrain fiscal space and the government has committed to fiscalconsolidation under the ECF, it is critical that the fiscal effort is designed to minimize any adverse 2.Low levels of taxes and social spending in Comoros limit the redistributive impact offiscal policies.Fiscal policy plays a key role for income redistribution, affecting poverty and inequality through taxation and transfers. Yet, domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) in Comoros isvery weak, with tax revenue averaging only 8 percent of GDP over the period 2015-2022, below theaverages for Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia or even comparable small islands countries (see Appendix 3.Evidence on the incidence of fiscal policies in Comoros is scant.Apoverty assessment for Comoros conducted by the World Bank in 2017 finds that both taxation and transfers as a wholereduce inequality, primarily driven by social transfers in education. However, the assessment findsthat the tax system in Comoros also leads to fiscal impoverishment meaning that taxes, especiallyindirect taxes, increase the poverty headcount. Fiscal impoverishment is also observed in other Sub-Saharan countries including Tanzania, Togo or Zambia (Lustig et al., 2023). In the case of Comoros, 4.This paper aims to assess the incidence of two revenue-raising fiscal policies onincome distribution in Comoros.Under the ECF, the Comorian government has committed to taxreform through streamlining exemptions and broadening major tax bases. The new Tax Policy Unitwill lead medium-term reform