科摩罗的税收和支出政策：微观模拟的分配效应（英）

Tax and ExpenditurePolicies in Comoros: Distributive Effects Using Micro-Simulations Al-Mouksit Akimand JiajiaGu SIP/2026/016 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed onJanuary27, 2026. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/48. 2026MAR IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican Department Tax and Expenditure Policies in Comoros: Distributive Effects Using Micro-Simulations, Union of theComorosPrepared by Al-MouksitAkim and JiajiaGu Authorized for distributionbyRuud VermeulenMarch2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on January 27, 2026. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/48. ABSTRACT:This paper assesses the distributional impact of tax and expenditure policies in Comoros using amicrosimulation framework based on the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology and household surveydata. It evaluates key revenue-raising reforms under the IMF Extended Credit Facility and post-WTOaccession, including tax base broadening, the removal of tax expenditures, and changes in border taxation.The analysis also examines the incidence of fuel subsidies. Results show that while proposed reformseffectively increase revenues, their impact on inequality is limited. Tax exemptions and fuel subsidies are foundto be regressive, disproportionately benefiting higher-income households, highlighting the need forbetter-targeted redistribution mechanisms. RECOMMENDED CITATION:: Akim, A.-M and Gu, J. (2026). Tax and Expenditure Policies in Comoros:Distributive Effects Using Micro-Simulations, Union of the Comoros, SIP/2026/016. Washington, D.C.:International Monetary Fund. Tax and Expenditure Policies inComoros: Distributive Effects Using Micro-SimulationsUnion of the Comoros Prepared by Al-Mouksit Akim and JiajiaGu UNION OF THE COMOROS SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByThe AfricanDepartment Prepared By Al-Mouksit Akim (AFR), Jiajia Gu (SPR) CONTENTS TAX AND EXPENDITURE POLICIES IN COMOROS: DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS USINGMICRO-SIMULATIONS _______________________________________________________________3 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________3B. Methodology ________________________________________________________________________4C. Results _____________________________________________________________________________12D. Conclusion_________________________________________________________________________18E. Policy Recommendations __________________________________________________________19 FIGURES 1. CEQ Income Concepts _______________________________________________________________52. Comparison Between the Observed Taxable Income and the Theoretical TaxableIncome _________________________________________________________________________________73. Comparison Between the Observed Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) Values ofImported Goods and their Theoretical Values __________________________________________94. Impact of Broadening the Tax Base and the Tax Expenditure on Income Inequality155. Impact of Broadening the Tax Base by Disposable Income Decile__________________156. Incidence of the Tax Expenditures__________________________________________________167. Household Expenditure and Fuel Budget Shares ___________________________________178. Kerosene Direct Subsidy ___________________________________________________________179. Impact of Diesel Subsidy ___________________________________________________________18 TABLES 1. Tax Schedule _________________________________________________________________________62. Implicit Tax Rates for Specific Taxes on Oil Products and Rice________________________83. Category of Tax Revenues Included in the Microsimulation Model_________________104. SCH Fuel Price Structure and Profit in 2024 ________________________________________115. Impact of Broadening the Tax Base and the Tax Expenditure on the Government _13 6. Impact of Broadening the Tax Base and the Tax Expenditure on SelectedSensitive Products ____________________________________________________________________________147. Household Expenditure ____________________________________________________________________16 References ___________________________________________________________________________________ 20 APPENDIX I . Tax and Expenditures Policies in Comoros _________________________________________________21 TAX AND EXPENDITURE POLICIES IN COMOROS:DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS USING MICRO-SIMULATIONS1 A.Introduction 1.Fiscal policy is the primary tool for governments to redistribute income consistentwith socio-economic policy priorities. In Comoros where elevated debt levels coupled withinstitutional fragility constrai