广发期货贵金属日报20260302

Q&A on AI Labor Market DisruptionQ&A on AI Labor Market Disruption Following the release of Claude Code and OpenAl Codex and recent commentaryonthepotentialofimminentjobloss,marketattentionhasshiftedsharplytowardAllabordisruption.InthisreportweframeourresearchonAilabormarket disruption around the current debate and argue that near-term labordisplacementconcernshavebecomeexcessive.Following the release of Claude Code and OpenAl Codex and recent commentaryonthepotentialofimminentjobloss,marketattentionhasshiftedsharplytowardAllabordisruption.InthisreportweframeourresearchonAilabormarket disruption around the current debate and argue that near-term labordisplacementconcernshavebecomeexcessive. 212)902-Z16Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC212)902-Z16Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Becauseourbaselineforecasts alreadyincorporateourexpectationthat Alwillautomate25%ofworktasks,recent eventsraisemoreuncertaintyaroundtimingthan overall impact.Wecontinueto expect a gradual adoption cyclemostlybecausecapabilityhasnotbeenthemainbarriertotechnologyadoptionbutacknowledge that recent news raises risks of a more frontloaded impact.Becauseourbaselineforecasts alreadyincorporateourexpectationthat Alwillautomate25%ofworktasks,recent eventsraisemoreuncertaintyaroundtimingthan overall impact.Wecontinueto expect a gradual adoption cyclemostlybecausecapabilityhasnotbeenthemainbarriertotechnologyadoptionbutacknowledge that recent news raises risks of a more frontloaded impact. Concerns around an accelerated paceof disruption should bebenchmarkedagainst the reality that Al'slabor market impact is still small.Sectors alreadyaffected byAlarecreatingamodest5-10kdragonnet jobgrowth,but thereisnobroadcorrelationbetweenAladoptionandlabormarketoutcomes,andcurrentusecasessuggestonly2/%ofUsjobsareexposedtoautomationtoday.Infact,increased demand forAl-infrastructure builders and Al-proficientworkers has probablygenerated a net positivehiring impulse sofar.Concerns around an accelerated paceof disruption should bebenchmarkedagainst the reality that Al'slabor market impact is still small.Sectors alreadyaffected byAlarecreatingamodest5-10kdragonnet jobgrowth,but thereisnobroadcorrelationbetweenAladoptionandlabormarketoutcomes,andcurrentusecasessuggestonly2/%ofUsjobsareexposedtoautomationtoday.Infact,increased demand forAl-infrastructure builders and Al-proficientworkers has probablygenerated a net positivehiring impulse sofar. Historical elasticities suggest 6-7%of workerswillbedisplacedunder ourbaselineforecast,whichweexpectwill lowerannualhiringby1mn jobsandscenario.Historical elasticities suggest 6-7%of workerswillbedisplacedunder ourbaselineforecast,whichweexpectwill lowerannualhiringby1mn jobsandscenario. Morenegativelabormarketpredictionsdonotfullyaccountforthedynamicnatureof thelabormarket, inour opinion.TheUS economy createsmorethan3Omn gross new jobsperyear, andtechnologicalchange is the maindriver oflong-run employmentgrowth.We expect that these dynamics will repeatandAlwill createnew jobs whileit destroys others.We therefore donotanticipateajobapocalypse.Morenegativelabormarketpredictionsdonotfullyaccountforthedynamicnatureof thelabormarket, inour opinion.TheUS economy createsmorethan3Omn gross new jobsperyear, andtechnologicalchange is the maindriver oflong-run employmentgrowth.We expect that these dynamics will repeatandAlwill createnew jobs whileit destroys others.We therefore donotanticipateajobapocalypse. We willbemonitoring Al adoptiontrends,the hiring drag on jobs alreadyaffectedbyAl,andthecorrelationbetweenAladoptionandlabormarketslackindicators to gauge Al progress and risks.But the underlying question of whether“"thistimeisdifferent"will behardtoproveordisprove,even ifthelabormarketremains solid in the nearterm.We willbemonitoring Al adoptiontrends,the hiring drag on jobs alreadyaffectedbyAl,andthecorrelationbetweenAladoptionandlabormarketslackindicators to gauge Al progress and risks.But the underlying question of whether“"thistimeisdifferent"will behardtoproveordisprove,even ifthelabormarketremains solid in the nearterm. potential of imminent jobloss,marketattention has shifted sharplytowardAl-drivenlabormarketdisruption.InthiscommentweframeourresearchonAllabormarketdisruption in the context of the current debateand argue that near-termlabordisplacementconcernshavebecomeexcessive.potential of imminent jobloss,marketattention has shifted sharplytowardAl-drivenlabormarketdisruption.InthiscommentweframeourresearchonAllabormarketdisruption in the context of the current debateand argue that near-termlabordisplacementconcernshavebecomeexcessive. ConcernsaroundAllabormarketdisruptionhavebeenpresentforseveralyearsnow,ConcernsaroundAllabormarketdisruptionhavebeenpresentforseveralyearsnow, buttwocatalystshavebroughtthemsharplyintofocusinrecentweeks.buttwocatalystshavebroughtthemsharplyintofocusinrecentweeks. AI'sGPT-5.3-Codexwere widelyviewed asa stepforward inapplied capability.WhiletheevolutionofmodelsawayfromchatbotstowardAlagentswasunde