ASML：LNA EUV平均售价有望上涨60%？跑赢大盘

ASML Holding NV RatingOutperform Price Target ASML: LNA EUV ASP seeing 60% upside? Outperform According to Reuters on 23rdof February, ASML announced that it has found a way to pushEUV source power to 1,000 W, up from roughly 600 W on its latest platform, the NXE:3800E,implying that thelight‑sourceoutput would go up more than 50%. At its 2024 CapitalMarkets Day, ASML already laid out a roadmap to reach ~1,000W EUV source power, butframed it as an ambition that was not yet even in R&D, essentially a longer term target ratherthan a confirmed technical solution. What is new now is that ASML appears to have founda concrete way to get there. This has significant implications in ASML’s superior businessmodel. Close Date24 Feb 2026ASML.NA Close Price (EUR)1,263.40Price Target (EUR)1,600.00Upside/(Downside)27%52-Week Range1,309.00/508.40EDME1,561.77FYEDecDiv Yield0.6%Market Cap (EUR) (M)490,386EV (EUR) (M)479,773 We analyze the implications below, including: 1. Improved power means higher throughputto 330WpH; 2. ASML’s pricing is linked to throughput, allowing it to sell the new LNA EUV at€350Mn, 60% higher than €220Mn ASP in 2025; 3. Margin Improvement comes with higherASP as cost doesn’t go up as much. 4. Higher throughput for HNA can be expected too, asthe lightsource is common between LNA and HNA; 5. EUV is now more likely to replace DUVdouble patterning, as throughput of the latter can’t improve much due to the intrinsic physicalconstraints of ArFi; 6. This also widens the gap for competitors to catch up, including ChineseEUV (China/EU Semis: China built an EUV prototype?) or US competitors such as Substrate(private) (ASML: Can a start-up challenge ASML and TSMC with radical lithography tool?) Investment Implications We view ASML’s progress in raising EUV lightsource power to 1000w as a confirmation to ourbull thesis and reiterate Outperform rating, PT= 1,600 with 27% potential upside. See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website. DETAILS According to Reuters on 23rdof February, ASML announced that it has found a way to push EUV source power to 1,000 W,up from roughly 600 W on its latest platform, the NXE:3800E, implying that thelight‑sourceoutput would go up more than50%. At its 2024 Capital Markets Day, ASML already laid out a roadmap to reach ~1,000W EUV source power, but framed it asan ambition that was not yet even in R&D, essentially a longer term target rather than a confirmed technical solution. What isnew now is that ASML appears to have found a concrete way to get there (Exhibit 1). This has significant implications in ASML’ssuperior business model. We analyze the implications below. Improved power means higher throughput to 330 WpH.There is a direct relationship between EUV’s throughput in WpH(wafers per hour) and the source power, and the ratio historically is 0.45 WpH/W at 30mJ/cm2. With 1000w source power,that’s roughly equivalent to 330WpH, 50% improvement from the current gen (Exhibit 2). For context, ASML’s current roadmapis from ~220 WpH today for NXEL3800E to ~250 WpH on the NXE:4000F and ~280 WpH on the NXE:4200G, and now thisimplies an upside case to ~330 wafers per hour (Exhibit 3). ASML’s pricing is linked to throughput, employing a value-based pricing strategy. Historical ASP of its EUV machines /WpH has an almost linear relationship at around €1Mn/WpH (Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5). Assuming this relationship is maintained, an330WpH EUV means the ASP will be roughly €350Mn,60% higher than €220Mn ASP in 2025. Margin Improvement comes with higher ASP as cost doesn’t go up as much. Historically the cost increase has alwaysbeen below productivity improvements and ASP increase, hence margin for EUV has been continuously improving. This year,one reason why ASML’s GM guidance is weaker than expected is due to product mix, where ASML expects to ships more3600D than last year. Investors asked why customers want more 3600D, given it’s an older/slower machine. We believe it’ssimply the result of a fixed process of 3nm uses 3600D and this year the capacity expansion is mostly on 3nm as needed byAI accelerators. From next year onward, the EUV margin should go back to expansion trajectory, enabling ASML corporate GMexpansion. With the 1000W source power, two advances were key: doubling the tin droplet rate to about 100,000 per secondand shaping the droplets into plasma with two smaller laser pre pulses instead of the single shaping pulse used today. Whilethere would be some associated costs, it won’t be as significant given the majority of the other components (especially optics)are unchanged. Higher throughput for HNA can be expected too,as the lightsource is common between LNA and HNA (Exhibit 6). Theeffect, similarly, is higher ASP and higher margin for HNA. We believe HNA should be of higher margin than LNA at maturity,given the shorter learning curve