马来西亚：选定问题

MALAYSIA SELECTED ISSUES This paperonMalaysiawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. Itis based on the information available at the time it was completed onFebruary 4, 2026. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. MALAYSIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByAsia and PacificDepartment Prepared BySandile HlatshwayoandAishwary Trivedi(APD) UNPACKING THE EFFECTS OF TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON ASEANECONOMIES __________________________________________________________________________ 3 A. Introduction__________________________________________________________________________3B. Granular TPU Measures: Methodology & Stylized Facts______________________________5C. Empirical Methodology ____________________________________________________________ 10D. Empirical Results ___________________________________________________________________ 12E. Conclusion _________________________________________________________________________ 19References____________________________________________________________________________ 20 FIGURES 1.Own Trade Policy Uncertainty, By Type and Region________________________________82.ASEAN6 Own Trade Policy Uncertainty, By Type: 1995 to 2025 ____________________93.ASEAN6 Third-Party Trade Policy Uncertainty, By Type: 1995 to 2024 _____________94.Impact of TPU Shocks on Real GDP Per Capita___________________________________ 135.Impacts of Third-Party TPU Shocks on Real GDP Per Capita Across Percentiles ofTrade Openness _________________________________________________________________ 146.Impact of TPU Shocks on Real GDP Per Capita: Dual-Shock Specifications_______ 157.Protectionist TPU Shocks: Channels ______________________________________________ 168.Agreement TPU Shocks: Channels _______________________________________________ 18 TABLES 1.Examples of Malaysia’s Trade Policy Uncertainty Measures Across Type andGeography ________________________________________________________________________52.Own Trade Policy Uncertainty Sample Statistics, by Type and Region______________83.Correlation between Own TPU Measures and Other Uncertainty Measures______ 10 ANNEXES I.Alternative Trade Policy Uncertainty Term Sets ___________________________________ 22II.Trade Policy Uncertainty Algorithms – Additional Methodological Detail_________ 23III.Additional Stylized Facts__________________________________________________________ 25IV.Empirical Methodology and Data Annex__________________________________________ 26V.Robustness Checks _______________________________________________________________ 28 UNPACKING THE EFFECTS OF TRADE POLICYUNCERTAINTY ON ASEAN ECONOMIES1 Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has reached record highs in recent years. To better understand itseffects, this paper develops granular TPU measures for several ASEAN economies that distinguishbetween protectionist and trade agreement-based uncertainty, as well as differences between ‘own’-country TPU shocks and third-party TPU shocks (i.e., spillovers from TPU in trading partnereconomies). The results indicate that third-party protectionist TPU shocks are the most detrimental tooutput per capita, followed by third-party agreement TPU shocks and own protectionist TPU shocks.For third-party TPU shocks, declines in investment and private consumption disproportionately offsetstronger trade balances that likely stem from reallocated trade flows to ASEAN, in line with priorliterature. Own protectionist TPU shocks weigh directly on economies’ trade balances while puttingupward pressure on inflation over the medium term. Finally, in contrast to the other findings, ownagreement TPU shocks are associated with a small boost to output per capita. This may reflectanticipatory investment effects for potential expanded economic activity once the tension is resolved;however, that potential does not appear to materialize in stronger trade balances, and the initial boostto investment and its effect on output per capita wane over time. A.Introduction 1.Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has recently reached historic highs, with an expansiveliterature suggesting it has negative implications for growth in ASEAN economies andbeyond.2At a macro-level, the literature finds that higher TPU leads to poor economic outcomesincluding sluggish investment and low productivity growth, as well as puzzles like the disconnectbetween changes in real effective exchange rates (REER) and export performance (Caldara et al.,2020; Handley & Limao, 2015; Hlatshwayo & Saxegaard, 2016; Zhou & Ji, 2022). At the micro-level,firms have long cited policy uncertainty as a primary impediment to doing business, and studiesshow larger declines in employmen