全球浪潮释放积极信号

26 February 2026 The Global Wavesignal is positive for equities/cyclicals Quant StrategyGlobal The signal from the Global Wave has turned positive and now indicates the global cycleis strengthening. Although theglobal earnings cyclehas remained robust and trends innews sentiment have been positive since the US introduced tariffs 10 months ago, thetrend in economic data was sideways. During this period, global market breadth wasnarrow with only 39% of stocks outperforming the MSCI AC World Index as a few Performance lessons from history After previous trough signals in the Global Wave, the MSCI AC World Index returned amedian16.5% in the subsequent 12-months. In previous upturns, thebest performingregionswere Emerging Markets and Europe, and thebest performing global sectorswere Semiconductors, Media, and Diversified Financials. Thebest performing global Nigel Tupper>>Quant StrategistMerrill Lynch (Australia)+61 2 9226 5735 Amar Vashi>>Quant StrategistMerrill Lynch (Australia)amar.vashi@bofa.com Five positives and two negatives Thefive components contributing positively to the Global Wave last month wereGlobalIndustrial ConfidenceandGlobal Consumer Confidence, Global Unemployment,Global Sumuhan Shanmugalingam>>Quant StrategistMerrill Lynch (Australia)sumuhan.shanmugalingam@bofa.com Chart1:TheGlobal Wavehas troughedThe Global Wave is an amalgamation of seven components across 50 countries Unless otherwise noted all links onthe front page of this report refer to Source:BofA Global Quantitative Strategy, MSCI, IBES, Haver, Bloomberg, OECD, IMF, ICE Bond Indices, National Statistics DatabaseThe sentiment indicator identified as Global Wave above is intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for referencepurposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. This sentiment indicator was not created to act as a benchmark. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should haveexperience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports.As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Contents Global Wave Components4Global Wave and Equity Performance7Global Wave and Rotation12Global Wave and Earnings13Global Wave and Interest Rates/GDP/Inflation14Global Wave and Commodities15Global Wave and Currencies16 Boosters & Bunkers17 Performance Summary19Global Boosters and Bunkers20USA Bunkers and Boosters24Europe Bunkers and Boosters28Japan Bunkers and Boosters32Asia Pac ex-Japan (APxJ) Bunkers and Boosters36Emerging Markets (GEM) Bunkers and Boosters40Australia Bunkers and Boosters44 Notice to Readers: The various screens identified in this report are intended to be indicative metrics onlyand may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for anyfinancial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other The screens in this report are not a recommended list either individually or as a group ofstocks. Investors should consider the fundamentals of the companies and their own Acronyms used in this report and its definitions (full form) The Global Wave The Global Wave has signaled a trough in the global economic cycle which is positive for equities Global Wave ComponentsThe Global Wave is an amalgam of seven components representing various aspects of the global economy. The Global Wave is an amalgamation of seven components representing various aspects of the globaleconomy Global Wave and Equity Performance Chart11:Equities (MSCI ACWI) subsequent 36 months return afterGlobal Wave Peaks Chart10:Equities (MSCI ACWI)subsequent 36 months return afterGlobal Wave Troughs ACWI averages 0.8% returns with a hit rate of 50% in subsequent 12mfollowing peaks Global equities rallied in the 12m post troughs in the Global Wave Chart12:Regional performance (USD) post troughs in the GlobalWave (pre and post GFC) Chart13:Regional performance (USD) post peaks in the GlobalWave (pre and post GFC) Pre-GFC, EM had the best returns in 12m following troughs in the GlobalWave, however post-GFC, the USA has the best returns The USA has the best returns in subsequent 12-months post the peak inthe Global Wave Sou