佛得角：选定问题

CABO VERDE SELECTED ISSUES February 2026 ThisSelected IssuespaperonCabo Verdewas prepared by a staff team of theInternational Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. CABO VERDE SELECTED ISSUES January 9, 2026 ApprovedByThe African PreparedbyBruno Albuquerque, Nombulelo Gumata,Daniel Cunha, Dawit Tessema, and Peter Wankuru. CONTENTS INTEREST RATE PASS-THROUGH IN CABO VERDE______________________________________3A. Interest Rate Channel of Monetary Policy________________________________________________3 B. Interest-Rate Pass-Through______________________________________________________________8C. Asymmetric Pass-through During Loosening and Tightening Cycles____________________10D. Conclusion______________________________________________________________________________ 12 FIGURES 1.Average Lending Policy Rate Spread_____________________________________________________5 2.Interest Rate Betas During Policy Rate Tightening Phases________________________________63.Interest Rate Betas During Policy Rate Loosening Phases________________________________64.Average Interest Rate Betas Across Policy Rate Loosening and Tightening Phases_______75.Interest Rate Pass-through Across Models _______________________________________________ 96.Interest Rate Pass-through to Long-term Tates During Tightening and TABLES 1.BCV Interest Rate Tightening Cycles_____________________________________________________4 2.Banking System__________________________________________________________________________83.Banks’ of Importance in Cabo Verde_____________________________________________________8 CABO VERDE MACRO-DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF VAT REFORM SUPPORTING PUBLICINVESTMENT IN CABO VERDE____________________________________________________________________ 14 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________ 14B. Policy Simulations________________________________________________________________________________ 18C. The Baseline Scenario: VAT Base-expansion _____________________________________________________ 18D. Upside Scenario: Removal of all Indirect Tax Exemptions ________________________________________ 19E. Downside Scenario: Underperformance of VAT base-expansion _________________________________ 21F. Scenario Comparisons – Macroeconomic Outcomes _____________________________________________ 22G. Scenario Comparisons – Poverty & Distributional Outcomes ____________________________________ 23 References FIGURES 1.Scenario Comparison Across Key Variables ______________________________________________________ 232.Change in Gini Across Steady States (Long-run View)____________________________________________ 253.Income Growth by Decile Across Steady States __________________________________________________ 254.Income Distribution and Poverty Rates Across Steady State _____________________________________ 26 TABLES 1.Policy Assumptions in the Simulations ___________________________________________________________ 152.Key Results from the Simulations ________________________________________________________________ 173.Cash transfers under Baseline Scenario__________________________________________________________194.Cash transfers under Upside Scenario____________________________________________________________ 20 ANNEX I.Distributional Inference Using Quadratic Growth Incidence Curves _______________________________ 29II.Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Tax Policy _________________________________________ 32 INTEREST RATE PASS-THROUGH IN CABO VERDE This annex estimates the interest rate pass-through in Cabo Verde. The Banco de Cabo Verde (BCV)embarked on a monetary policy tightening phase since May 2023, the steepest tightening cycle inrecent history. The key findings of the annex show that the policy rate pass-through is limited inCabo Verde. Using two econometric models, the estimates point to a one-percentage point change inthe policy rate leading to a medium- to long-run policy rate pass-through in the range of 0.19-0.28 forthe average lending rate, and 0.13-0.23 for the long-term rate. The pass-through during tightening A.Interest Rate Channel of Monetary Policy 1.The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism to the real economydepends on the degree and speed at which policy rate changes are passed through to lendingrates.In an economy without financial friction, the optimal outcome from the social planner’s pointof view is for policy rate changes to be completely passed through to lending and deposit rates. Thisannex estimates the interest rate pass-through of the monetary policy rate to lending rates in Cabo