固定收益部市场日报

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 The flows were light this morning amid onshore holiday. TTMTIN 26 rose2.1pts.LASUDE 26/FAEACO Perp were 1.1pts higher.FTLNHD27/SHUION 29 up 0.7-1.0pt. ACPM 4.85 Perp dropped 1.4pts. SOFTBK 61-65/EHICAR 26 were 0.6-0.9pt lower. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk MPEL/STCITY:GGR market share rose to c15% in FY25. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Liquidity up, long-term credit demand still soft. CMBImaintains an expectation for 10bp LPR cut in 1Q26 to support the economicgrowth. See comments from CMBI economic research below. Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Last Friday,the Macau gaming complex were unchanged to 0.2pt higher.See our comments on MGMCHIlast Friday, and on MPEL below. In HK,FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 0.3pt higher. LASUDE 26 gained 1.0pt. TheNWDEVL/VDNWDL complex were 0.1pt lower to 0.3pt higher. In Chineseproperties, VNKRLE 27’ and 29’ rose another 1.4-2.5pts. See our commentson SZ government’s rescue plan for Vanke on12 Feb’26.DALWAN 28sgained 0.1-0.3pt. However, FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 27 were 0.7-0.9pt lower.FTLNHD 26 was 0.1pt higher. In JP space, SOFTBKs fell 0.6-2.3pts. JPinsurance subs like RESLIF 6.875 Perp were 0.1pt firmer. Yankee AT1sclosed 0.1-0.3pt weaker after edged a touch firmer in the morning amid PBbuying in thin liquidity. In SE Asian space, INDYIJ 29 was 0.1pt lower.Moody’s downgraded Indika Energy by one notch to B1 from Ba3 on strainedcredit metrics, and revised its outlook to stable from negative. VLLPM 27-29were 0.9-1.5pts lower. PTTGC Perps lost 0.3-0.4pt. On the other hand, theReNewEnergy complex and MEDCIJ 26-30s/SMCGL Perps wereunchanged to 0.3pt higher. In the Middle East, BSFR 35/FABUH 34-35 edged0.1pt firmer. SECO 29-36s and long-end KSAs closed 0.1-0.4pt higher. InLGFV space, flows were modest and mainly driven by RMs. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.05%), Dow (+0.10%) and Nasdaq (-0.22%) were mixed on last Friday. US Jan’26 CPI was+0.2% mom/+2.4% yoy, lower than the market expectation of +0.3% mom/+2.5% yoy, respectively. UST yieldwas lower on last Friday.2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.40%/3.61%/4.04%/4.69%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 MPEL/STCITY:GGR market share rose to c15% in FY25 As discussed before, we consider Macau gaming bonds lower-beta and good carryplays with improving creditstories. We should see more new supply to come in view of the scheduled maturities and undemanding fundingcosts. Our top picks within the segment remainMPELs and STCITYsgiven the growing adj. EBITDA of MelcoResorts and Studio City, as well as the more appealing risk-return profiles of MPELs/STCITYs.We alsoconsiderWYNMAC’27 and ‘29yield pick-up plays, trading at premium of c30-80bps over bonds of its US parent.We are neutral on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOLs on valuation. In 4Q25, Melco Resorts (MPEL) reported a 8.6% yoy increase in operating revenue to USD1.3bn, while adj.EBITDA was up by 11% yoy to USD300mn, driven by both gaming and non-gaming operations. In FY25,MPEL’s operating revenue increasedby 11.3% yoy to USD5.2bn, outpacing Macau’s 9.1% yoy GGR growthover the year, while its adj. EBITDA grew 15.5% yoy to USD1.3bn. MPEL’s GGR market share rose to c15%in FY25 from c13% in FY24, based on our estimates. By property, City of Dreams (COD) Macau delivered strong adj. EBITDA growth in 4Q25, surged 38% yoy toUSD194mn, driven by improved rolling chip and mass-table performance. A higher rolling chip win-rate (4Q25:3.18% vs 4Q24: 2.35%, typical win rate is 2.85-3.15%) more than offset the lower mass table hold (4Q25: 31% vs 4Q24: 32%). Hotel occupancy improved to 98% in 4Q25 from 95% in 4Q24, lifting RevPAR to USD222 (fromUSD209) along with higher average daily rate. In FY25, COD Macau’s adj. EBITDA increased 32.3% yoy toUSD822mn. Studio City’sadj. EBITDA rose 6.6% yoy in 4Q25 to USD87mn, supported by better mass-table performanceand higher gaming-machine handle. Mass table hold improved to 33.7% in 4Q25 (vs 32.1% in 4Q24), whilegaming-machine win rate was 3.0% (vs 3.3% in 4Q24). We understandStudio City remains focus on thepremium mass customers. In FY25, Studio City’s adj. EBITDA increased 15.4% yoy to USD394mn. As of Dec’25, MPEL held USD1.0bn cash and USD2.4bn undrawn facilities. 4Q25 capex was USD82.3bn,mainly deployed to enhance projects at COD Macau and Studio City. In FY25, MPEL spent cUSD365mn incapex, lower than its full year budget of USD415mn, as part of the capex budgeted was deferred to FY26.Hence, the FY26 capex budget was revised up to USD450mn from USD400mn. We expect MPEL to fund itscapex with operating cash inflows and cash on hand. c83% of FY26 capex will be deployed to Macau (incl.USD100mn for Countdown Hotel conversion to luxury suites, targeted to open in 3Q26), with the remainder toManila and Cyprus. MPEL is alsorevamping the retail area at