中介，中断？黑山银行利差分析

Intermediation,Interrupted? Serhan Cevik and Amit Kara WP/26/29 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2026FEB IMF Working Paper European Department Intermediation, Interrupted?Bank-Level Analysis of Interest Spreads in Montenegro Prepared bySerhan Cevik and Amit Kara* Authorized for distribution by Srikant SeshadriFebruary 2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:Financial intermediation in Montenegro has been on a declining trend since independence, withdomestic credit to the private sector decreasing from a peak of 86.5 percent of GDP in 2008 to 46.4 percent in2024. Net interest margin (NIM)—a common indicator of intermediation costs—has remained elevated, rankingamong the highest in the Western Balkans. This paper analyzes the determinants of NIMs using a uniquebank-level dataset comprising quarterly observations on all commercial banks in Montenegro during the period2013–25. The empirical analysis reveals three key findings, each with important policy implications. First, larger RECOMMENDED CITATION:Cevik, S., and A. Kara (2026). “Intermediation, Interrupted? Bank-Level Analysisof Interest Spreads in Montenegro,” IMF Working Paper No.26/29(Washington, DC: International Monetary WORKING PAPERS Intermediation, Interrupted?Bank-Level Analysis of Interest Prepared bySerhan Cevik and Amit Kara Contents I.Introduction............................................................................................................................................3II.A Brief Review of the Literature...........................................................................................................5III.Structure and Dynamics of the Banking System in Montenegro......................................................6 Appendix I..........................................................................................................................................................20 References.........................................................................................................................................................22 FIGURES 1. State of Financial Intermediation.......................................................................................................................42. Banking System Indicators................................................................................................................................83. Bank-Level Interest Rates and NIMs................................................................................................................9 TABLES 1. Summary Statistics.........................................................................................................................................112. Determinants of Bank-Level NIMs: Baseline Estimations...............................................................................133. Determinants of Bank-Level NIMs: Granular Estimations...............................................................................16 I.Introduction Montenegro has experienced a marked decline in financial intermediation, with domestic credit to the privatesector contracting from a peak of 86.5 percent of GDP in 2008 to 46.4 percent by 2024—a multifaceted trendunfolded across the Western Balkans following their independence, reflecting broader regional economic andinstitutional challenges.1Net interest rate margin (NIM)—the difference between lending and deposit rates—have remained persistently elevated relative to regional peers, signaling structural inefficiencies within thefinancial sector in Montenegro. Such inefficiencies are commonlyattributed to concentrated market structure, As illustrated in the left-hand panel of Figure 1, the average lending rate of commercial banks in Montenegro’sunilaterally euroized economy generally moves in tandem with the European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate. Incontrast, deposit rates demonstratea markedly weaker responsiveness to fluctuations in the ECB’s monetarypolicy rate—particularly during periods of policy tightening—suggesting asymmetric interest rate pass-through This paper investigates the determinants of NIMs across commercial banks in Montenegro—a small, openeconomy characterized by the highest interest rate spreads in the Western Balkans. To uncover the key driversof NIMs, we utilize a novel bank-level paneldataset comprising quarterly observations from eleven commercialbanks operating in Montenegro over the period 2013–25. This timeframe captures varying monetary policyphases, including both easing and tightening cycles, enabling a nuanced assessment of how bank-specific lending remains the predominant source of financing, and aligning the financial