脆弱性的宏观经济挑战与稳定与增长政策

STRATEGY, POLICY, AND REVIEW DEPARTMENT Macroeconomic Challengesof Fragility and Policiesfor Stability and Growth Prepared by a team led by Alexei Miksjuk and Paul M. Bisca,comprising Jocelyn Boussard, John-Paul Fanning, RominaKazandjian, Yipei Zhang, Lavinia (Xinyuan) Zhao, and ThomasAugsten, under the guidance of Gaëlle Pierre, Björn Rother,and Guillaume Chabert INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND STRATEGY, POLICY, AND REVIEW DEPARTMENT DEPARTMENTAL PAPER Macroeconomic Challengesof Fragility and Policies forStability and Growth Prepared by a team led by Alexei Miksjuk andPaul M. Bisca, comprising Jocelyn Boussard, John-PaulFanning, Romina Kazandjian, Yipei Zhang, Lavinia (Xinyuan)Zhao, and Thomas Augsten, under the guidance ofGaëlle Pierre, Björn Rother, and Guillaume Chabert Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF Library Names: Miksjuk, Alexei, author. | Bisca, Paul M., author. | Boussard, Jocelyn, author. | Fanning, John-Paul,author. | Kazandjian, Romina, author. | Zhang, Yipei, author. | Zhao, Lavinia (Xinyuan), author. | Augsten,Thomas Ferdinand, author. | Pierre, Gaëlle, author. | Rother, Bjoern, author. | Chabert, Guillaume,author. | International Monetary Fund, publisher. Title: Macroeconomic challenges of fragility and policies for stability and growth / Prepared by a teamled by Alexei Miksjuk and Paul M. Bisca, comprising Jocelyn Boussard, John-Paul Fanning, RominaKazandjian, Yipei Zhang, Lavinia (Xinyuan) Zhao, and Thomas Augsten, under the guidance of GaëllePierre, Björn Rother, and Guillaume Chabert. Description: Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2026. | February 2026. | Includes bibliographicalreferences. Subjects: LCSH: Political stability—economic aspects. | Economic stabilization.Classification: LCC JC330.2.M5 2026 The authors gratefully acknowledge the guidance from Tokhir Mirzoev (Strategy, Policy, and ReviewDepartment) and the contribution from Tomohide Mineyama (European Department) at the early stageof the project. The authors would also like to thank without implicating Masood Ahmed (Center forGlobal Development); Paul Collier (University of Oxford and International Growth Centre); Stefan Dercon(University of Oxford); Shantayanan Devarajan (Georgetown University); Hannes Mueller (Barcelona Schoolof Economics); Kevin Carey, Jeetendra Khadan, Ayhan Kose, Gary Milante, Peter Selcuk (all World Bank);Maximilian Brien, Tea Cimini, Jonathan Marley, Cushla Thompson (all OECD); Raphael Espinoza (WesternHemisphere Department) and colleagues from the IMF for their valuable comments and suggestions. The Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or cross-countryinterest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily representthe views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Contents Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .v A. Defining Fragility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3B. Measuring Fragility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4C. The Most Fragile Countries: FCS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7D. Fragility and Conflict Beyond FCS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 A. Long-Term Challenges in FCS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13B. Estimates of Long-Term Economic Challenges of Weak Institutions and Conflict. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17C. Estimates of Long-Term Economic Challenges of Other Drivers of Fragility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 4. Short-Term Macroeconomic Challenges of Fragility: Vulnerability to Economic Shocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 A. Recent Developments in FCS amid Global Shocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22B. Estimates of Short-Term Economic Challenges of Weak Institutions and Conflict. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 A. Tailoring Economic Policy Design. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28B. Bolstering State Functions in FCS—A Policy Agenda. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .