国防开支增长与欧元区经济：欧洲国防建设的宏观、财政与金融稳定挑战

Europe’s defence build-up:macroeconomic, fiscal andfinancial stability challenges EEA/ESEM Annual Meetings Dublin, 17 August 2026 RubricOutline 13Developments in defence spending and its financingMacroeconomic effects of the increase in defence spending2Financial and funding dimension RubricDefencespending across euro area countries RubricTotal public and defence investment across euro area countries RubricComposition of euro area defence spending over time (21 countries) (share of total spending) RubricLong-term outlook for defence spending and its composition RubricDefence spending and fiscal positions in euro area countries Change in defence expenditure andgeneral government balance Change in defence expenditure andsovereign debt-to-GDP ratio (percentages of GDP and percentage points) RubricOutline 1Developments in defence spending and its financing 2Financial and funding dimension 3Macroeconomic effects of the increase in defence spending RubricFinancial market impact of German announcement on defence spending increases Reaction of euro area OIS rates toGerman fiscal announcement Cross-market reaction to 5 MarchGerman fiscal announcement EA equity market performance:broad index, technology, defence Sources: Bloomberg, LSEG and ECB calculations.Notes: The chart shows the one-day changes in key financial marketindicators on 5 March 2025 following the German fiscal announcement.Box plots are based on daily changes since 1 January 2020 and showthe minimum, the 25th, 50th, and 75thpercentiles, and the maximum ofthe respective historical distributions. The latest observations are for 13August 2026. DE stands for Germany, EA stands for euro area, OIS forovernight index swap, and ILS for inflation-linked swap. RubricEffects of exposure to defence on corporate financing and investment Difference in debt and investmentbetween firms exposed and not exposed to defence Debt by exposure to defence and infrastructure(left panel: 12-month trailing sum of net issuance; right panel: percentages per annum) (percentage points) RubricEuro area bank exposures to the defence sector Lending to the defence sector and totalturnover in the defence sector Share of defence sector lending – lendersand borrowers RubricEffects of defence spending on the real interest rate (horizontal axis: quarters after the increase in spending, vertical axis: percentage points) RubricFunding gap for strategic investment Estimated annual spending needs in defence andother strategic investment Multi-pronged approach for public financing ofstrategic investment needs (percentages of GDP) RubricOutline 1Developments in defence spending and its financing 3Macroeconomic effects of the increase in defence spending RubricExpansion of activity in different defence sectors in Germany German manufacturing production(percentage changes compared with 2021 levels) German domestic manufacturing orders(percentage changes compared with 2021 levels) RubricBaseline: Effects of additional defence spending since 2025 Munich Security Conference Euro area additional defence spendingand composition since February 2025 Estimated macroeconomic effects of theadditional national defence spending (fiscal shock: percentage points of GDP; macroeconomiceffects: percentage points) Ukraine supportCompensation of employees(left-hand scale: percentages of GDP; right-hand scale:percentage of GDP, component shares, percentages) RubricMacroeconomic impact of a gradual fiscal expansion – multipliers in projection models Euro area HICP inflation Euro area GDP multiplier (change in GDP per unit of change in government defencespending in percentage points) RubricMacroeconomic impact of defence spending – multipliers in projection models Euro area GDP multiplier: state-dependencies and different instruments(change in GDP per unit of change in gov. spending in percentage points) Euro area GDP multiplier: across models(change in GDP per unit of change in government defence spending in percentage points) RubricModelling the sensitivity of macroeconomic impact of a gradual fiscal expansion RubricSubstantial uncertainty surrounding fiscal multipliers of defence spending GDP fiscal multipliers of military spending in empirical studies US STUDIES Barro and Redlick(2011)(*), Military spending, temporary, 1 yearPermanent, 1 yearRamey(2011), Military spending news, full sample, 5 yearsPost-Second World War, 5 yearsNakamura and Steinsson(2014)(*), Military spending: prime military contracts, 2 yearsBen Zeev and Pappa(2017), Military spending news, 1.5 yearsAntolin-Diaz and Surico(2025), Military spending news, 1 year, 4 years RubricGDP and price effects: empirical evidence across EU countries over 1999-2025 Cumulative impact of total defence spending (bold line: with "adjusted" capital spending component to improve timing of the fiscal shock by accounting for delays in delivery of largeequipment; dashed line: not “adjusted" as per COFOG recor