澳大利亚：选定问题

AUSTRALIA SELECTED ISSUES February 2026 This paperonAustraliawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund.It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onJanuary 21, 2026. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund AUSTRALIA SELECTED ISSUES January 21, 2026 ApprovedByAsia and PacificDepartment PreparedbyMonica Petrescu,John Spray, Ni Wang,andYuanyan Sophia ZhangwithcontributionsfromSamikshya CONTENTS AUSTRALIA: UNPACKING LABOR MARKET RESILIENCE____________________________3 A. A Snapshot of Labor Market Dynamics in Australia__________________________________3B. Paradox 1: Persistently Low Unemployment Rates and High Job Vacancies Despite aCooling Economy_______________________________________________________________________7C. Paradox 2: Persistent Strength of Labor Force Participation Post Pandemic________12 Figures 1. Labor Market Conditions in Australia_________________________________________________42. Labor Market Conditions in Peer Economies_________________________________________53. Labor Market Transitions_____________________________________________________________84. Vacancies and Labor Demand in Australia_________________________________________105. Labor Supply_______________________________________________________________________126. Monetary Tightening and the Cost-of-Living Impacts on Labor Supply____________147. Wages and Drivers_________________________________________________________________18 Tables 1. Australia: Wage Phillips Curve Regressions_________________________________________212. Australia: Wage Phillips Curves at Sector Level_____________________________________25 Annexes References____________________________________________________________________________________33 AUSTRALIA: UNPACKINGLABOR MARKETRESILIENCE The Australianlabor markethas displayed remarkable resilience in recent years, even as economicgrowth slowed.Persistentlystrong labor demandmetrapidgrowth inlabor supply,supportingsolidemploymentgainsandkeepingunemploymentratescontained.At the same time,resilience has nottranslated into significantwagepressures.Thispaperexploresstructural and cyclicalfactorsbehind Thispaperfinds that significant shifts in cyclical and structural components of labor demand andsupply in recent years havetemporarilyreshaped labor market dynamics, driving headline indicatorsto overstate cyclical tightness, andmay havecontributedto atemporarily lower estimate of theNAIRU.First,headlineindicatorssuch as vacanciesand unemploymentratesmayhaveoverstatedthecyclical strength of the labormarket.Headline indicators were also influenced bystructural shifts,includingalargeexpansion in the healthcare sector.Second,robustlaborsupply growthreflectednotonlystructuraltrendsbut also cyclical pressures:high cost-of-living andelevatedinterestrates A.A Snapshot of Labor MarketDynamicsin Australia 1.Australia’s labor market has been remarkably resilient in the post-pandemic period,evenwheneconomicgrowth slowed.Labordemandsurgedasthe economyrecoveredafterpandemic restrictions were lifted in late 2021,withjob vacancies reachingrecord highsin 2022;while declining since,vacanciesremain well abovehistorictrends.At the same time, since 2021,strongnet migration andrisingparticipation rateshaveboosted labor supply.Together,robust 2.Labor market resilience was observed across many advanced economies (AEs) in the •Labor markets tightened across AEs in the post-pandemic period, but Australia is among the fewwhere labor demand has remained persistently elevated and unemployment has remained belowpre-pandemicaverages. Job vacancies rose rapidly acrossAEsin 2021-2022, as pandemic-relatedrestrictions easedand economies rebounded, and then declined in subsequent years,asfiscaland monetarypoliciestightenedand growth slowed. However, while in mostpeerAEs vacancyratios have broadly returned to pre-pandemic levels, in Australia they have remained above well •Australia experiencedstronger labor supply growth than peers,and was one of fewAEsthat sawasignificant rise inlabor forceparticipation.Australiaexperiencedthelargestlabor force AUSTRALIA migration after borders reopened, whichfed into, but was not the sole driver of,risinglaborforceparticipation. Conversely,severalpeerAEssawlabor force participationdeclineover thesame period, in some cases reflecting early retirement or long-term sickness(Figure2).Together •Despitepersistentlabor markettightness, wage growth in Australiahas beencontained relative topeers.Across AEs,wagegrowthpicked upaslabor market tightenedin the post-pandemicperiod,butinitiallyfell short of inflation—with real wages only catching up to pre-pandemiclevels in more recent years.In Australia,real wage growthover 2020-2024waslow