澳大利亚：选定问题

国际货币基金组织国家报告 No. 24/361 澳大利亚 精选问题 2024年12月 本文关于澳大利亚的内容由国际货币基金组织的一名工作人员团队编制，作为与成员国定期磋商的背景文件。它基于截止至2024年11月13日完成时所拥有的信息。 本报告的副本可供公众获取。 国际货币基金组织 • 出版服务部 PO Box 92780 • 华盛顿特区 20090 电话： (202) 623-7430 • 传真： (202) 623-7201 邮箱：publications@imf.org网络：http://www.imf.org 国际货币基金组织 华盛顿特区 澳大利亚 精选问题 2024年11月13日 批准通过亚洲及太平洋地区系部 由Monica Petrescu、John Spray和Sneha Thube编制，Jaden Jonghyuk Kim和Alice Tianbo Zhang提供贡献，Florence Jaumotte和Pritha Mitra指导。 目录 澳大利亚的货币政策传导 ___________________________ 3 A. 当前的澳大利亚货币紧缩周期是否不同？B. 通过住房渠道的传导___________________ 9C. 通过企业资产负债表的传导_____________________________________10D. 结论 ____________________________________________________________________19 数字 1. 政策利率与通货膨胀 ________________________________________________________ 42. 宏观经济变量的演变 __________________________________________ 53. 劳动力市场和金融指标 ___________________________________________ 64. 发达经济体中的政策利率与通货膨胀 _________________________________ 75. 发达经济体中的增长与失业 ______________________________ 86. 货币政策的异质性 _______________________________________________ 96. 货币政策传导至家庭的异质性 _________________________________ 97. 房贷利率和还款 _________________________________________________108. 货币政策冲击后企业收益的演变 ______________________139. 货币政策冲击后投资的演变 _________________________1410. 货币政策冲击后投资演变中的异质性 _ 1511. 当前紧缩周期中的企业资产负债表 ____________________1712. 现金持有 _________________________________________________________________ 1713. 当前周期开始时的资产负债表特征 ________________18 表格 1. 货币紧缩周期 _____________________________________________________ 3 附件 I. 数据和方法__________________________________________________________21 参考文献 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 23 ___________________________25全球及国内能源转型风险：澳大利亚 数字A. 引言 _____________________________________________________________________________________ 25B. 关于澳大利亚暴露行业背景介绍_______________________________________________________28C. 研究方法与数据 ____________________________________________________________________________ 32D. 澳大利亚国内能源转型经济影响______________________________________________________ 34E. 全球能源转型经济影响 __________________________________________ 36F. 可能的缓解因素______________________________________________________________________40G. 结论______________________________________________________________________________________ 44 附件参考文献__________________________________________________________________________________________ 481. 全球化石燃料需求在能源转型期间将以不可预测的方式转变_______________________________________________________________ 262. 能源转型驱动因素__________________________________________________________________ 303. 澳大利亚的资源部门_______________________________________________________________________ 314. 国内转型的意义__________________________________________________________ 355. 全球煤炭需求______________________________________________________________________________ 386. 全球能源转型的影响_______________________________________________________________________ 417. 潜在的缓解因素______________________________________________________________________45I. 国际货币基金组织-环境__________________________________________________________________________________________ 45 II. 其他图表________________________________________________________________________________ 47 澳大利亚的货币政策传导机制1 近年来，包括澳大利亚在内的发达经济体实施了前所未有的货币政策收紧，以应对显著的通货膨胀压力。随着澳大利亚储备银行（RBA） navigating the last mile of disinflation, Chapter 1 of the Special Issues Paper, Monetary Policy Transmission in Australia, examines monetary policy transmission via three lenses: (a) assessing how aggregate economic dynamics in the current monetary tightening cycle in Australia compare with experiences in other major advanced economies (AEs) and in previous RBA monetary tightening cycles; (b) highlighting recent evidence on the strength and speed of monetary policy transmission via the housing sector in Australia; and (c) assessing the strength and speed of monetary policy transmissionvia corporate balance sheets in Australia, including to capture differences from other AEs and to account for heterogeneity among firms and sectors. We find that while macroeconomic dynamics in Australia in the current tightening cycle have not differed significantly from historical experience and from experiences in other major AEs, the resilience of Australia’s economy in recent years is remarkable, as evidenced by persistently tight labor markets. Second, several features of the Australian housing market, most notably the high prevalence of variable rate mortgages, may strengthen monetary policy transmission to households relative to other AEs. Lastly, we find that firm investment in Australia’s non-extractive sector is strongly sensitive to monetary policy changes; the sensitivity is more pronounced for firms with less liquidity, higher leverage, and higher reliance on bank and short-term financing. We highlight how resilience in Australian corporate balance sheets in recent years may havehelped soften monetary policy transmission to investment in the current cycle. A. 当前的澳大利亚货币政策紧缩周期是否有所不同？ 在这一节中，我们探讨了澳大利亚当前货币紧缩周期中关键宏观经济指标的演变。特别是，我们评