2012年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2012年第三季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2012:TRENDS & PROSPECTS Quarterly Report (Q3/2012) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2012 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2012) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database /http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and Published and printed by the European Travel Commission Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite:www.etc-corporate.orgEmail:info@etc-corporate.org ISSN No: 2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Photo © iStockphoto / Martin Wahlborg – Gothenburg city canal, Sweden Foreword Leslie VellaChairmanETC Market Intelligence Group Executive Summary European travel proves resilient in theface of the weak and uncertain globaleconomic environment, with growth in However, growth has slowed as the yearhas progressed indicated by air transportand accommodation data as well asavailable arrivals data. Passenger load This is partly explained by cost-savingbehaviours to face the uncertaineconomic environment, with an increasein intra-regional as well as domestic Among European airlines, long-haul airtraffic demand has shown the greatest The strongest growth in European tourismdemand is concentrated in smaller,emerging Eastern destinations which tend Prices, and therefore revenue and profits,remain under pressure. Hotel averagedaily rates (ADR) in most markets are still The economic outlook remains uncertainalthough the near-term risk of Eurozonebreak-up appears to have faded. The TourMIS data on arrivals from key sourcemarkets echo the trends seen in theindustry data. Intra-European travel isbenefitting from a shift away from more 2012 Tourism Performance Summary 2012 European travel data indicate that international travel to the region hascontinued to expand into the peak summer season but has slowed. Some of thelarge established Western European destinations have posted growth in the firsteight months of 2012 although Central and Eastern European destinations Global Economy: Could growth surprise on the upside in 2013? The summer Eurozone financial market rally waspartly reversed in the second half of September.Recent data show that the Eurozone is still inrecession, and there are few signs that thedownturn is easing. Household purchasingpoweris expected to fall for the third consecutive yearin 2012, hit by low nominal wage increases, falls At the September Federal Reserve OpenMarket Committee (FOMC) meeting, the USFederal Reserve (Fed) announced a potentiallyopen-ended programme of asset purchases, The Fed signalled a strong commitment toboosting the recovery stressing that policy Japan also relaxed policy last month and the UKis likely to do so again later this year. And theECB’s looser stance since late 2011 has startedto improve monetary trends in the Eurozone.Against this background global stocks are up However, the global economy still faces majorheadwinds. Not least of these is the fiscaltightening planned in the Eurozone and othermajor economies through next year, whichthreatens to blunt the impact of loose monetary On top of this, the soft patch in the emergingeconomies including China has continued intoQ3. The slowdown in Asia has also hit Japan,which now risks dropping back into technical Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Reflecting these headwinds, Oxford Economics’forecasts for global real GDP growth in 2012and 2013 are 3.0% and 3.3% respectively.Given the continued downside risks from issuessuch as the US ‘fiscal cliff’ and the Eurozone Recent Industry Performance Slowdown but still growth in 2012 Reflecting the sluggish global economic recovery, international air travel is Slower air travel demand means additional supply is sufficient to matchthe additional capacity and load factors have reached a plateau. Although Eastern European hotel demand held up in the first eight monthsof 2012, all other regions showed next to minimal growth prompting a Air Transport Global international air passenger traffic flows haveslowed significantly in summer 2012 and are wellbelow the +7% year-on-year advances recorded intheFebruary-April period.Air traffic,measued in Growth in 2012 to date has been driven by expansionin Middle Eastern air traffic, including some reboundfrom the slowdown in 2011 due to the Arab Spring.The longer-run trend is consistent with rising travel The moderation in air p