人工智能经济中创造就业机会的路线图

Expert Council Members Mr. Nachiket DeshpandeCOO, LTIMindtree Mr. Sandeep PatelHead, India and SEA, IBM Mr. Thirumala ArohiMamunooru Executive VP, Head of IndiaBusiness and Platforms,Group head - EducationTraining and Assessment, Ms. Sonia PantAdvisor & ProgramDirector, NITI Aayog Mr. Richard LoboChief People Officer,Tech Mahindra Mr. Anish MukkerIndia CEO, Teleperformance Mr. Rajiv GuptaMD and Senior Partner, LEAD CONTRIBUTORS: Mr. Sambhav JainManaging Director and Partner, Boston Consulting Group, New Delhi Ms. Sangeeta GuptaSenior Vice President, National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM) Ms. Namita Jain Deputy Director, NASSCOM Research OTHER CONTRIBUTORS: Mr. Piyush MehraChief Human Resources Officer, Genpact Mr. Vikas Bhalla President, EXL ServiceMr. Jasjit Singh KangManaging Partner and Global Head, Wipro Business Process Services (Wipro BPS) Mr. Deepak WadhavanGlobal Vice President, India Delivery and Operations, Concentrix Mr. Nirav SampatChief Technology Officer, Accenture in India Mr. Rohit PiparsaniaSenior Leader, Quality Engineering, Amdocs Mr. Nitin RakeshChief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Mphasis Foreword As AI reshapes the global economy, India stands ata critical juncture: we can either be disrupted bythis wave or lead it with confidence and purpose. The choices we make today will determine whether welose jobs in India’s tech sector by 2031 or create new, AI-enabled opportunities for our youth. India’sstrength lies in its people.With over 9 milliontechnologyand customer experience professionals,and the world’s largest pool of young digital talent, wehave both the scale and the ambition to become the AI This is why the recommendation to establish an India AITalent Mission, in this report is both timely and essential.By embedding AI fluency across our education system,creating a massive national reskilling engine, and becoming BVR SubrahmanyamCEO, NITI Aayog Foreword AI is rewriting the rules of the job market—faster thanany policy, curriculum, or company can keep up.The question is no longerifjobs will be impacted, buthowwe respond.By 2031, India’s technology sector stands at a crossroads:we could lose 1.5 million jobs or create up to 4 million newopportunities. The difference lies in the choices we make To help navigate this pivotal moment, NITI Aayog’s FrontierTech Hub has developed a comprehensive roadmap usinga Work-Worker-Workforce lens—showing how India can Iam deeply grateful to BCG and NASSCOM for theirpartnership in developing this report, and to the Expert Ms Debjani Ghosh,Distinguished Fellow, NITI Aayog Executive Summary Ccounterargumentis that jobs will not be lost but willbe replaced by people who know how to use AI, and many new,previously unheard-of jobs will get created. Which way would the future unfold for jobs in India’s powerhouseIT services (euphemism for the development and maintenance ofapplications, infrastructure and other forms of technology) and BPOsectors(operations including finance and accounting,customer In a business-as-usual case, there will be a downside. In this worst-case scenario, the headcount in the tech services sector could godown from 7.5 to 8 million in 2023 to 6 million by 2031. Similarly, the And yet, as this action plan highlights, if India acts strategically, techsector jobs in the country could increase rather than decrease. Thetotal number of jobs in the tech and Customer Service sectors could The action plan arrives at this view after examining the mechanicsof the AI disruption that is already unfolding in the tech sector.Employinga 3W work-worker-workforce framework,the action Three existing factors exacerbate the AI risk: high job displacementrisk, gaps in India’s computer science education, and a shortfall in AI But AI will create upward tailwinds in the long run, unlocking newroles, technology, and use cases. More of hyper specialization in techwill lead to job creation of three kinds: Enterprise AI Skills, FrontierAI Skills and AI for AI skills. The most commonplace ‘enterpriseroles’ being created are AI prompt engineers, AI architects andAIOps engineers. In addition, given the truly horizontal nature of AIimpacting multiple industries with many use cases intersecting othertechnologies like Quantum, Haptic and others, these use cases are actionplan calls on the Government,academia,and industry to This action plan calls for the establishment of an India AI TalentMission—a nationally coordinated, all-of-government initiative focusedsquarely on equipping India’s workforce for the AI age. The urgencyis clear: AI is advancing faster than policy, curriculum, and skillingcycles can adapt. If India does not act in time, the nation risks not only Today, India’s efforts to address the AI skilling imperatives are spreadthin across numerous ministries and agencies—each driving well-intentioned but siloed programs. What’s missing is convergence. Anintegrated, mission-mode