月度概览（2026年1月）

Economics Global Economics The Monthly Flyover (January 2026) Peter Sidorov, CFASenior Economist+1-585-615-0253 Our Global EconomicsMonthly Flyover is designed as a concise, one-stopresource, offering a single-page briefing for each of the world’s most importantcountries and regions. Our aim is to provide you with a clear overview of the Jim ReidGlobal Head of Macro and ThematicResearch Each month, you’ll be able to take a rapid tour of the global economy–gainingessential insights without being overwhelmed by excessive detail. All our majorforecasts are fully up to date in thisreport. We value your feedback. Please let us The start of 2026 has been defined by significant geopolitical volatility, withtransatlantic tensions over Greenland the latest flash point that risks a new tradewar. Meanwhile, the latest data support our expectations for above-consensusgrowth in the US and successful reflation in China. The Fed Chair nomination andtheIEEPA tariffs court ruling are risk events in focus in the US.InEurope, we seecyclicalresilience outweighing structural rigidities in 2026,as Germany’s Contents Overview............................................................................................................................................................................................2Geopolitics........................................................................................................................................................................................4United States....................................................................................................................................................................................5Euro area...........................................................................................................................................................................................6Germany............................................................................................................................................................................................7United Kingdom...............................................................................................................................................................................8Japan.................................................................................................................................................................................................9China................................................................................................................................................................................................10 Overview Thestartof 2026hasmorethanlived uptothe “AnythingButDull” title of our 2026 World Outlook.The global economystartedthe yearamid heightened geopoliticalvolatility.US action to remove Venezuela’s President Maduro,protestsin Iran and escalating tensions over Greenland underscore thatinternational instability is now a structural feature, not a temporary aberration.The US demand for Greenland has particularly amplified transatlantic tensions,with Trump’s tariff threat starting February 1straising therisks ofa new round of At the same time, domestic policy is also in focus in the US. Trump’s decision onthe Fed Chairnominee, expected by the end of January,is a key event, while theSupreme Court ruling on Trump’s IEEPA tariffs is another,although this couldalso come a lot later in H1.Away from geopolitics, the US administration has This comes astheUSeconomyhas startedthe yearon the front foot, supportingour above-consensus 2.4%(Q4/Q4)real GDP view for 2026, led bystronggrowthinH1. Tailwinds includesubstantial fiscal support(larger tax refunds),as theUStogether with Germany lead a rise in fiscal deficits across developed economiesin 2026 (Figure2). Easy financial conditions following Fed rate cuts and areduction in trade uncertaintyare also supportive.We seethis as limiting the room Theeuro areais experiencing a "two-economy problem"of its own,characterized by both cyclical resilience and structural rigidities.Weexpectcyclical resilienceto prevailin 2026,as domestic tailwinds,ledbyGermanfiscalspendinganddefence,outweigh lingeringexternal risks, though the latest tensions with the UScould add to the latter.The impact ofGermany's expansionary fiscal policyisstarting todrivean uptick initshard data,with the government's spending plans The interaction between politics and fiscal policyisalso in focus inJapan, wherePrime Minister Takaichihascalledforasnap electiononFebruary8, whichwill bea test of her “responsible,expansionary fiscal policy". A decisive victory wouldlikelylead markets to anticipate fiscal expansion and deregulation, just as JGB Currently, we expect the BoJto deliver 50bps of tightening in 2026, with the nexthike coming in April.If our broader global projections are correct, this wouldmakethe BoJ the onlyoneof the major DM and EMcentral banks tohiker