月度概览（2026年2月）
Economics Global Economics The Monthly Flyover (February 2026) Peter Sidorov, CFASenior Economist+1-585-615-0253 Our Global Economics Monthly Flyover is designed as a concise, one-stopresource, offering asingle-page briefing for each of the world’s most importantcountries and regions. Our aim is to provide you with a clear overview of the Jim ReidGlobal Head of Macro and ThematicResearch Each month, you’ll be able to take a rapid tour of the global economy–gainingessential insights without being overwhelmed by excessive detail. All our major Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 Theglobalmacro focus hasbroadenedfromgeopolitical volatility(thoughUS-Iranuncertainty persists)to other themes, notablyconcerns overAI disruption.This hasdrivenmarket dispersion, yet the global economy maintainsdecentmomentum amidst diverging fiscal and monetary policies. The US stands out withpricingformaterialFed easing despitestill elevatedinflationand strong activity(we expect justoneFedcutin 2026). In Europe, Germany's expansionary fiscalpolicy underpinscyclical resiliencethat’s likely to keep theECBon hold in 2026, Mark WallChief Economist+44-20-754-52087 Michael KirkerEconomist Table ofContents Overview............................................................................................................................................................................................2Geopolitics........................................................................................................................................................................................4United States....................................................................................................................................................................................5Euro Area...........................................................................................................................................................................................6Germany............................................................................................................................................................................................7United Kingdom...............................................................................................................................................................................8Japan.................................................................................................................................................................................................9China................................................................................................................................................................................................10India..................................................................................................................................................................................................11Asia-8 (Asia ex China/HK and India)..........................................................................................................................................12 Overview Early2026 has brought a dynamic and differentiated macroeconomic landscape.Whilegeopoliticalvolatilityremainsa majortopic, notably withUS-Iran tensions,themarketfocus haswidenedto broader macro and thematic stories.Potential disruption from AIhas been a top market theme though so far it hasmanifestedmoreinaccelerating marketdispersion thaninanaggregate market impact.Andwhilequestions over the economic disruption from AIhave mounted, especially This backdrop comes with considerable differentiation across countries, notablyonfiscal and monetary policy.This is perhaps best exemplified bytheUS, withmarketspricingin more easing from the Fed than any other G10 central bank in2026,even asUSinflation remains broadly stableatabove target(Figure1).Bycontrast, otherabove-targetG10 central banksareseeinga material slowing ininflation,exceptthe RBA(which hasnowactuallyhiked).The dovishexpectationsfor theFedmay beexplainedby acombination ofAIconcernsover thelabourmarket,downside inflationdriversandthepotentially moredovish bias from new The one other G10 central bank priced to deliver material easing in 2026 is theBoE.In 2025 theUKsaw the largest non-recessionary increase in unemployment(by 0.8pp) since 1982and the UK labour market outlook remains sluggish.Coupledwithadovish holdby theBoEearlier this month, this supports our viewfor two rate cuts by the summer. That said, we do see continued disinflation and In theEuroArea, asolidlabour market underpinsdomesticcyclical resiliencedespitestructural rigidities.External headwinds and below-target headlineinflationin 2026 mean near-termrisksare tilted toECBcuts,butour baseline isthat the next move will be a hike in mid-2027asfiscal easing and a tight labourmarketeventuallymovesinflation risks to the upside.Germany’s expansionaryfiscal policy is becomin
