中国经济：通缩持续缓解

Deflation continued to ease Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk China’s deflationarypressurecontinued to easeinearly 2026. CPI slowed to 0.2%YoY in Jan, primarily due to a high base effect and volatile food pricing. Coreinflation remained robust driven by durable goods, tourism and jewelleryprices.PPI beat market expectation again as price relation inupstream sectors passedthrough,particularly the non-ferrous metals,while PPI of consumer goodsremained relatively subdued. We expect mild price reflation to continue in 2026drivenby the anti-involution campaign,AI-related investment and globalcommodities rally,which should improve corporate profitability and supportcapital-market performance of materials and cyclical sectors. Price reflation Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk Food price dynamics and base effects were the primary drivers behindthe shift in headline CPI.China’s CPIYoY moderated to 0.2% in Janfrom0.8% inDec, coming in slightly below the market expectation of 0.4%.Insequential terms, CPIremained flat at 0.2% MoM. Food pricesshowedweaker than normal seasonality ahead of the Chinese New Year (CNY) with0% MoM and-0.7% YoY growth. Pork pricessaw1.2% MoM growth, thefirst time in 17 months, as live hog inventory edged down. Conversely, fresh Core CPI remained robust as durable goods price reflated.Coreinflation edged down to 0.8% YoY in Jan from 1.2% in Dec due to baseeffect, while its MoM expanded to0.3%. Durable goods saw notable pricereflation as the holiday approached, with household appliances and telecomequipment rising 0.7% and 0.9% MoM respectively, while transport vehiclepricesedged up 0.3% MoM.Other supplies and servicesincludinggoldjewellerysurged 2.7% MoMin Jan, likely contributing significantly to the coreinflation reading as gold prices stayed elevated. Service price growthedgedup to 0.2% MoMin Jan,as tourism price and home service rose by 1.8% PPI sustained its recovery momentum.The YoY contraction of PPInarrowed to-1.4% in Jan from-1.9% in Dec, beating market expectations of-1.5%. The MoM growth reached 0.4%, the highest in 28months, driven bythepass-through ofreflation.Extractionsector dropped 1.7% MoM in Janafter the rally in 2H25 as coal and crude oil & natural gas mining dropped3.2% and 2.2% respectively, whilenon-ferrous metals price remainedrobust. Raw materials and processing sectors rose 0.7% and 0.5% MoM inJan as chemical products manufacturing and non-ferrous metal smelting &processingrose 0.6%and 5.2%MoM.AI-related sectors including We expect mild price reflation driven by anti-involution campaign, AI-related investment and global commodities rally.We expect the CPI andPPI to reflate from 0.1% and-2.6% in 2025 to 0.9% and 0.5% in 2026, thanksto the anti-involution campaign, AI-related investment and global commoditiesrally.Therebound in price level should improve corporate profitability andsupport capital-market performance especially in the materials and cyclicalssectors, as we haveseen the total profit growth of industrial enterprisespicked up to 0.6%in2025from-3.3% in 2024.However, price reflation Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source: Wind,CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind,CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGMestimates Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part,certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensationwas, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852)3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Lim